[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin remains just inland over South Carolina,
centered near 33.6N 79.0W, or 8 nm WSW of Myrtle Beach, South
Carolina moving NE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014
mb. Tropical storm force winds extends up to 70 nm SE of the
center. Colin is a sheared system with most of the convection
located southeast of the center. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to
dissipate by early Monday. Colin is moving toward the northeast
and a slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just
inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through
Sunday morning, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean
late Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the Ocean Prediction Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml and the latest NHC
Marine and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Bonnie is no longer in the Atlantic basin and has
entered the Pacific Ocean. Bonnie is located about 95 nm off the
coast of Nicaragua. For more information, please read the Pacific
Tropical Weather Discussion issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml and the latest NHC
Marine and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, south of 18N and
moving W near 15 kt. The wave is enveloped in an outbreak of
Saharan dust that inhibits the development of deep convection.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W, south of
20N, extending from near the US Virgin Islands to central
Venezuela, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers to isolated
strong convection is found to the east of the trough axis,
covering most of the eastern Caribbean Sea and affecting Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show strong to near gale-force winds to the east of the
trough axis. Seas are 6-9 ft in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and extends to 06N28W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N28W to 08N37W and continues from 08N40W to
07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N
and between 22W and 29W. Similar convection is also noted S of 10N
and W of 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough extends from near Tropical Storm
Colin southwestward across northern Florida and into the NE Gulf
near 27N87W. A few showers are observed in the NE Gulf, especially
near the coast from SE Louisiana to the Big Bend region of
Florida. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a weak surface
ridge, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Surface
observations and recent satellite- derived wind data depict light
to locally moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Seas of
3-5 ft prevail in the Gulf, except for 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf along 28N
and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to
produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan
peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Bonnie and the TROPICAL WAVES section for details
on the active wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Outside of the strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea,
the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Bonnie and an upper level
low just north of the Cayman Islands combine to produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Gulf of Honduras
and the NE coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also noted off the northern coast of
Panama. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the
central and SW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, while light to
moderate winds are found in remainder of the NW Caribbean. Seas
of 6-9 ft are affecting the waters of the central and SW Caribbean
Sea, while 4-7 ft are occurring in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Bonnie will continue to move away from Central
America. Seas across the western Caribbean associated with Bonnie
will gradually subside today. A strong tropical wave located along
65W will continue moving quickly westward across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through tonight and across the central Caribbean Sun
and Sun night. Any development of this system should be slow to
occur. Expect a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across
the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves
across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Colin.

A surface trough extends from near Tropical Storm Colin to NE
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the
waters off NE Florida, especially N of 28N and W of 77W. Farther
east, a couple of surface troughs are found SE of Bermuda but
these features are not producing any significant convection. The
rest of the region W of 55W is dominated by a 1025 mb high
pressure system near Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this
system and lower pressures in the eastern Caribbean result in
fresh to strong easterly winds S of 22N and between 60W and 69W.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The remainder of the area W of
55W experiences gentle to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and
seas of 3-6 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong ridge
positioned north of the Azores, which allows for moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft to prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered
across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and exiting TS Bonnie will
support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and
in the Windward Passage today. A strong tropical wave will move
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend and
bring a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across the
waters S of 24N through Sun

$$
Delgado
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