[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered at 11.1N 81.8W
at 01/1800 UTC or 130 nm ESE of Bluefields, Nicaragua, moving W
at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 100 nm north of the center. Seas
12 ft or greater are within 150 nm from the center in the
northeastern quadrant and 90 nm from the center in the
southeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 16 ft. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to
14N west of 80W, including inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A
continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected through Saturday night. A west- northwestward
motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to
the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday
through Monday. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes
landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast
on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this
weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 33W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 05N to 10N between 25W and 32W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 61W, from 17N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed west of the wave axis, from 12N to 16N between 57W and
60W. The 1200 UTC sounding from Barbados showed a significant
increase in atmospheric moisture in the lee of the tropical wave,
in addition to strong trade winds at the surface.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 06N31W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 06N36W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
associated with the monsoon trough is from 07N to 11N east of 18W. Scattered
showers are noted near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between 38W and
46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough located inland along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana is
currently producing scattered moderate convection over the waters
within 60 nm of the coast. The latest scatterometer data shows
fresh to strong S winds in the far NW Gulf in the vicinity of the
convection. Elsewhere in the basin, high pressure dominates.
Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails, with locally
moderate S winds in the NW Gulf. Seas 3-5 ft across the basin,
highest in the NW Gulf and lowest in the E Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough located along the southern
coast of Texas will move slowly northwest and farther inland
today. Active weather is expected to linger across the Texas
coastal waters through Fri night. A surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds
will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Outside of the conditions associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie,
strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8-12
ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean
with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW
Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Bonnie will move to 11.0N 83.0W this evening, inland
to 11.0N 85.6W Sat morning, before continuing westward and
emerging across the Pacific waters Sat afternoon. A strong
tropical wave located along 60W will move over the Lesser Antilles
today and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening
through Sat night. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas across the
Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across
the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is being dominated by the Azores High. A weak surface
trough extends from 30N54W to 24N57W. A few showers and t-storms
are noted in the far NW section of the discussion waters, off the
coast of Florida. Across the tropical Atlantic anticyclonic flow
is gentle to moderate. The exception is in the lee of the strong
tropical wave near the lesser Antilles from 13N to 19N between 54W
and 61W, where trades are fresh to locally strong per the latst
scatterometer. Across the basin, seas are 4-7 ft, with locally 8
ft seas near the coast of Africa. In the aforementioned area of
fresh to strong winds from 13N to 19N between 54W and 61W, seas
are 8-10 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and TS Bonnie will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage through Fri night. Then, a strong tropical wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend will bring a broad
surge of winds and seas across the waters S of 22N Fri night
through Sun.

$$
Mahoney/Colon-Burgos
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