[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011224
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Updated to include the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory for
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave
near 11.5N 79.9W at 01/1200 UTC or 230 nm E of Bluefields
Nicaragua moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in
the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 77W and 84W.
A continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward
motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. The system will then move offshore but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday
through Monday. Strengthening is forecast today while the system
approaches the coast of Central America. Some weakening is
expected tonight while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa
Rica, but restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday
while it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 31W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 29W and 33W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 58W, from 17N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 12N to 16N between 55W and 59W.

See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
wave associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
13N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 07N28W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 06N35W to the coast of
French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 11N and E of 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 24W and
52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf
and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh
S-SE winds in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate easterlies are impacting the SE basin, including the
Florida Straits, with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are light in the NE basin
with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located along the
southern coast of Texas will move slowly northwest and farther
inland today. Active weather is expected to linger across the
Texas coastal waters through Fri night. Otherwise, a ridge will
dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to
E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through
Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central
Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate
the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 11.5N
79.2W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Two will move W-SW today and reach near
11.3N 81.4W this afternoon as a Tropical Storm, then move inland
across southeastern Nicaragua near 11.3N 84.0W tonight, before
continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific waters late
Sat afternoon. A strong tropical wave located along 58W will move
over the Lesser Antilles today and then over the eastern Caribbean
Sea this evening through Sat night. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and
seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it
moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. In the
western basin, mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north
of 27N and east of 77W while moderate SSE winds are observed off
the Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
noted south of 27N, including the Windward Passage, where seas
are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the
tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with 8-10 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 7-9
ft seas north of 17N with gentle winds and moderate seas south of
17N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered
across the central Atlantic along 40N and will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a
strong tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea by
the weekend will bring a broad surge of winds and seas across the
waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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