[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave
near 12N 78W at 01/0900 UTC or 275 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua
moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in the
northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 77W and
84W. A continued westward with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward
motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.
On the forecast track, the system will move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific
Ocean on Saturday.  The system will then move offshore but
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico Saturday through Monday. Strengthening is forecast today
while the system approaches the coast of Central America. Some
weakening is expected tonight while the system crosses Nicaragua
and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is anticipated Saturday
through Monday while it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 31W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 29W and 33W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 58W, from 17N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 12N to 16N between 55W and 59W.

See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
wave associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ, east
of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf
and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh
S-SE winds in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate
easterlies are impacting the SE basin, including the Florida
Straits, with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the NE basin with
1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, An area of low pressure located along the
southern coast of Texas is forecast to move slowly northward and
inland over southeastern Texas overnight. Active weather is
expected to linger across the Texas coastal waters through Fri
night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night
near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central
Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate
the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to
move W-SW overnight and reach near 11.5N 80.2W Fri morning as a
Tropical Storm, near 11.3N 82.8W Fri evening, and then inland
across southeastern Nicaragua Fri night, before continuing
westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat evening. A
strong tropical wave located along 57W is forecast to move over
the Lesser Antilles on Friday and then over the eastern
Caribbean Sea Fri evening through Sat night. Any development of
this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds
and seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave
as it moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. In the
western basin, mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north
of 27N and east of 77W while moderate SSE winds are observed off
the Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
noted south of 27N, including the Windward Passage, where seas
are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the
tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with 8-10 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 7-9
ft seas north of 17N with gentle winds and moderate seas south of
17N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a
strong tropical wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean
Sea by the weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the
waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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