[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 01S to 05N and W of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 27N82W. This is leading
to gentle winds in the NE Gulf and mainly moderate SE winds in
the SE and central Gulf. To the west of the associated ridge, low
pressure developing over Texas is leading to increasing fresh SE
winds in the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm of the Texas coast. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to
7 ft over the western Gulf W of 95W.

For the forecast, surface low pressure along the coast of Texas
will increase winds over the NW Gulf tonight, along with showers
and tstorms. Thereafter, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S
winds will spread across much of the Gulf through mid-week as the
high pressure moves NE of the basin. The next cold front is
expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another
round of strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas
across the western Gulf Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered N of the area extends into the western
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue in the
Windward Passage and offshore E Cuba and Nicaragua. Otherwise,
mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in
the eastern and central basin, with 5 to 7 ft seas gradually
decaying in the western Caribbean. The tail end of a stationary
front is analyzed over northern Hispaniola, enhancing scattered
showers across the island and passages.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the
Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, through
Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee
of Cuba through Wed night. Similar winds are expected in the
Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to
strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night.
Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure N of the area is leading to some mainly fresh W
winds offshore the N Florida coast. A stationary front enters the
area near 31N55W and extends SW to the N coast of Hispaniola.
Numerous moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either
side of the front. Mainly fresh NE winds are present behind the
front, highest S of 24N and E of 75W. Seas in this area are 8 to
11 ft. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas extending to around
50W. Farther east, ridging from the Azores high dominates the
pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE.
Moderate seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail across the central
and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, winds behind the aforementioned
stationary front are gradually diminishing. However, strong NE
winds are expected through tonight N of Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage. Large seas in the wake of the front will
gradually subside E of the Bahamas tonight. Trade winds will
increase S of 25N Wed as the pressure gradient increases. Looking
ahead, a front over the central Atlantic may push fresh to
strong E winds over the waters east of 73W Thu into Fri. Seas
will build NE of the Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in accordance
with the increasing winds.

$$
ERA
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