[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W
to 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 01N to 05N between 05W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02S to 08N between 18W and 41W, and from 01S to 03N W of
44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong surface high pressure dominates the Gulf waters being
anchored by a 1027 mb high near 27N89W and a 1026 mb high near
28N83W. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across
most of the basin, except for the far western gulf or W of 94W
where moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Moderate
to locally fresh SW to W winds are observed over the NE gulf
coastal waters. Seas across the area are mainly 3 to 4 ft, except
in the Yucatan channel where seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the high center currently located over the
north-central Gulf will move eastward on Mon, then a ridge will
persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight into Mon
morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf region
through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge
and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold front
is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another
round of gale force northerly winds and building seas across the
western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary cold front extends from the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti to the central Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua. The arctic blast
behind the frontal boundary brought well below normal temperatures
for the NW Caribbean. Santo Domingo, in central Cuba, reported a
low of 44.5F. A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea promoting
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations and
recent satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong N-NE
winds in the NW Caribbean Sea, while fresh trades are noted
offshore NW Colombia and gentle to moderate trades are found in
the rest of the basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are present behind the
frontal boundary, with the highest seas occurring between Honduras
and Jamaica. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from Haiti to near Bluefields,
Nicaragua. The front is forecast to weaken by Mon. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse across the Windward Passage at night through Tue
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N60W and
continues to northern Haiti. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen on satellite imagery ahead of the frontal
boundary, mainly N of 23N. Recent scatterometer satellite data
indicate that fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring
behind the frontal boundary. Seas of 10-16 ft are found behind
the front, mainly N of 23N and E of 77W. Ahead of the front, seas
of 6-10 ft are present.

The other feature of interest is a 1019 mb low pressure near
the Canary Islands embedded in a plume of Saharan dust that
envelops the archipelago, Madeira, NW Africa and even extends into
the Iberian peninsula. Strong to near gale-force winds are
occurring near the coast of Morocco with seas up to 7 ft. Farther
west, another weak low pressure is located near 29N23W and it is
producing some showers north of the center. A 1039 mb high
pressure system positioned near 46N22W extends southwestward over
the rest of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge north of the Azores and lower
pressures in the deep tropics and NE South America result in a
large region of fresh to localized strong winds, extending from 4N
to 26N and east of 50W. Seas in this area are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere
in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front stretches from 31N60W to Haiti. Fresh to
strong winds and large seas persist in the wake of the front. As
the front progresses eastward today, winds will continue to diminish
and become gentle to moderate by this afternoon. Large seas will
persist E of the Bahamas through Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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