[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

Updated the last three sections due to technical issues earlier

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning,
bringing strong to near-gale force winds. It will then move
quickly southeastward across the entire Gulf through Fri night,
causing near-gale to gale winds for the W central Gulf by Fri
noon; and then for the SW Gulf by late Fri afternoon. Seas will
rise and reach 9 to 12 ft Fri afternoon, before peaking at 14 to
17 ft by Fri evening.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
The aforementioned cold front will also exit into the Atlantic
from the southeast US Fri morning. A low pressure is going to form
along this front off the N Florida/Georgia coast by Fri evening,
then track northward parallel to the US E coast while deepening.
This will introduce near-gale to gale winds across the W central
Atlantic waters by Sat morning. Anticipate building seas to reach
9 to 11 ft by Fri evening, then further to between 14 and 18 ft on
Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa. An ITCZ
runs westward from 02N23W through 01N40W to near the French
Guinea-Brazil border at 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from the Equator to 04N between 23W to 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

A surface trough reaches westward from offshore of Tampa,
Florida to the NW Gulf. Another surface trough extends
southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula.
A third surface trough is near the E coast of Mexico near 22N96W.
These features are triggering scattered showers across much of the
Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft dominate the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, both surface troughs across the Gulf will
dissipate by tonight. A strong cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night,
bringing strong to near-gale force winds to much of the basin
through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon
and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range
between 10 and 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will
diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Modest trade-wind disturbances are producing scattered showers
over the W central basin, and SE basin including the Windward
Islands. A 1018 mb high near the Isla de Pinos is promoting light
to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft over the NW basin. Fresh to
strong NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present for the S
central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore
Colombia tonight, with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sat and the SW
Caribbean by late Sat, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas to the basin through the weekend. Expect fresh to
locally strong winds over the Windward Passage Sun into Mon behind
the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

A cold front curves west-southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N68W to 30N70W, then continues as a stationary front across
central Florida. Farther S, a 1014 mb low is persisting near the
NW Bahamas at 27N76W. These features are causing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms N of 25N between 67W and Florida. For
the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front near 28N60W
along with a modest 1017 mb low near 25N51W are sustaining
scattered showers N of 22N between 47W and 63W. Farther E, a
robust upper-level low near 24N43W is generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 15N to 29N between 37W and 44W. To the S,
convergent trades near the southern extent of a surge are
triggering scattered moderate convection from 04N to 10N between
30W and 50W. Strong upper-level winds are streaming widespread
cirrus near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 22N between the
African coast and 34W.

Fresh to strong NE winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found N of
the stationary/cold front, N of 29N between 70W and the N
Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas
of 7 to 11 ft are evident N of 7N between 20W and 50W. Fresh to
strong trades with 7 to 9-ft seas are present from the Equator to
07N between 25W and 52W. Light to gentle with locally moderate
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold/stationary front should
begin to weaken this evening, with strong winds persisting on the
north side of the boundary. This boundary will gradually
dissipate over night, with winds gradually diminishing. Low
pressure between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by
Fri. As it does, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and
bring strong to near-gale force winds to much of the basin Fri
night/Sat. Gale winds are likely N of 27N Sat, with seas ranging
between 10 and 17 ft. Both winds and seas should steadily subside
on Sun.

$$

Chan
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