[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning,
bringing strong to near gale force winds. It will then move
quickly southeastward across the entire Gulf through Fri night,
causing near gale to gale winds for the W central basin by Fri
noon; and then for the SW Gulf by late Fri afternoon. Seas will
rise and reach 9 to 12 ft Fri afternoon, before peaking at 14 to
17 ft by Fri evening.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
The aforementioned cold front will also exit into the Atlantic
from the southeast US Fri morning. A low pressure is going to form
along this front off the N Florida/Georgia coast by Fri evening,
then track northward parallel to the US E coast while deepening.
This will introduce near gale to gale winds across the W central
Atlantic waters by Sat morning. Anticipate building seas to reach
9 to 11 ft by Fri evening, then further to between 14 and 18 ft on
Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa. An ITCZ
runs westward from 02N23W through 01N40W to near the French
Guinea-Brazil border at 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection
extends from 04N to 14N between 29W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on gales
that will develop in the western Gulf Fri into Sat.

A weakening stationary front is noted from near Sarasota, Florida,
to offshore the Texas coast. No convection is associated with this
front, and convection previously associated with a surface trough
extending from the Florida Straights to the Yucatan Peninsula has
dissipated overnight. Another weak surface trough has developed in
the SW Gulf. Winds are NE across the basin, ranging from moderate
to fresh in the NE Gulf to light to gentle in the SW Gulf, W of
the surface trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft and subsiding in the NE
Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front and surface troughs will
dissipate by tonight, ahead of a strong cold front that will move
off the Texas coast early Friday. This front will race through
the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds
to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE
Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night.
Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the
start of next week, as high pressure builds into the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with a weakening surface trough in the
Yucatan Channel has diminished overnight. Otherwise, mid-level
anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence
and relatively dry conditions across the basin. Low pressure at
1008 mb over Colombia combined with ridging which extends from
north of the basin to across the NW Caribbean continues to support
fresh to strong winds offshore of northern Colombia, along with
seas of 6 to 8 ft, highest near 11.5N75W. Fresh NE winds are
noted across the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to
fresh trades cover the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, highest in the central
Caribbean. Light to gentle variable winds are in the NW Caribbean
under the ridging along with 2 to 4 ft seas, while gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore
Colombia through Fri night, with mainly moderate trades expected
elsewhere. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by Fri
night and southwest Caribbean by late Sat, and bring fresh to
strong north to northeast winds and building seas through the
weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward
Passage Sun into Mon behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N71W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Ahead of this front, a surface through stretches from
28N71W to the Florida Straits. Weak low pressure previously along
this trough in the NW Bahamas has dissipated. No convection is
associated with either of these features. N of the front, mainly
fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. S of the front,
light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft area ongoing. A 1019
mb high pressure centered near 27N67W is aiding in these
tranquil conditions.

Farther E, 1017 mb low pressure has formed around 30N59W, with a
stalled front extending S from the low center to about 24N64W. A
weak trough continues S of this to N of Puerto Rico. Little in the
way of convection nor enhanced winds are associated with these
features. Another high pressure, of 1021 mb, is centered near
30N53W, with low pressure of 1015 mb centered near 24N50W inducing
fresh mainly E to SE winds N and E of the center. An associated
surface trough along 50W extends from 18N to 28N. Dry air
encompassing this low and trough is inhibiting signficant
convection at this time. Seas E of 50W and N of 23N are 8 to 11
ft. To the south, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 5
to 8 ft, highest toward the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front along 29N will
dissipate by tonight, with associated winds diminishing. Low
pressure will develop between Florida and Bermuda later today,
then move N of the area by Fri. As it does, a strong cold front
will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to near gale force
winds to much of the basin Fri night into the weekend. Gales are
likely N of 27N Sat.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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