[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Fri, then race through the basin by Fri night,
bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin into
Sat. Gales are expected offshore Mexico between the Mouth of the
Rio Grande River and Tampico Fri afternoon, spreading southward to
offshore Veracruz Fri night. These N gales could possibly extend
eastward across the central and south-central Gulf Fri night
behind the front. The gales offshore Veracruz should end Sat
morning. Seas will build to 12-15 ft across the west-central and
southwest Gulf of Mexico behind the front. Conditions will improve
across the Gulf Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N31W. The ITCZ continues from 03N31W to 05N38W, then resumes
west of a surface trough from 03N43W to the coast of Brazil near
01N50W. The surface trough embedded in the ITCZ extends from
11N37W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 12N between 35W and 43W, and from 07N to 18N between 19W and
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A currently rather unimpressive stationary front extends from
Central Florida across the Tampa Bay area to 95W roughly along
27N. Fresh to locally strong winds were noted earlier north of
this boundary, but have diminished somewhat in the past several
hours. Even so, those earlier winds, now moderate to fresh, were
enough to generate 5 to 8 ft seas, highest near 26N88W. A surface
trough is located south of the front from near the Florida Keys to
across the Yucatan Channel to across the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
this trough, including across portions of SW and South Florida
persist. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail across the remainder of the basin, south of the stationary
front.

For the forecast, the trough in the southeast Gulf will dissipate
tonight. To the north, a stationary front from the Florida
peninsula extending into the NW Gulf will also dissipate tonight,
with fresh NE winds N of the front diminishing into Thu. A strong
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, then race through the
basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
much of the basin into Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico
late Fri, and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Gales will
diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Keys across the Yucatan
Channel to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible near the trough from western to
Cuba to near Mayan Riviera. Otherwise, mid-level anticyclonic
flow covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and
relatively dry conditions across the basin. Low pressure at 1008
mb over northern Colombia combined with ridging which extends from
north of the basin to across the NW Caribbean continues to
support fresh to strong winds offshore of northern Colombia, along
with seas of 5 to 8 ft, highest near 11.5N75W. Fresh NE winds are
noted across the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to
fresh trades cover the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, highest in the central
Caribbean. Light to gentle variable winds are in the NW Caribbean
under the ridging along with 2 to 4 ft seas, while gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore
Colombia into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will
prevail into the weekend. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Fri night and southwest Caribbean by late Sat, and bring
fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas
through the weekend. Expect fresh winds over the Windward Passage
Sun behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N74W to near Cape Canaveral
Florida. A surface trough is south of the front extending from
near 27N73W to 1015 mb low pressure over the NW Bahamas to across
the Florida Keys. Earlier showers and thunderstorms near the low
and trough, and north of the trough to the front have dispersed
slightly. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are north
of the front, while light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 3 to 4
ft seas dominate the rest of the waters west of 65W, except
moderate to locally fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas south of 22N.
High pressure of 1020 mb is located near 27N67W with ridging
extending northeast to near 30N63W, and southwest to across
central Cuba.

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N64W, with a surface trough
not far behind from 31N61W to 26N65W. Scattered showers are
possible near these features. Recent scatterometer data shows
moderate at best winds near the front and trough, with seas to 6
ft. A 1025 mb high is located ahead of the front near 29N55W. A
1018 mb low pressure area is southeast of the high near 24N48W
with a trough extending from 28N46W through the low to 20N50W.
Scatterometer data recently showed fresh to strong winds from 24N
to 29N between 43W and 50W, which likely continue east-southeast,
within an area from 29N43W to 23N30W to 13N30W to 24N43W. Seas
across this area are 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also
blowing through the Cabo Verde Islands including from 10N to 20N
between the west coast of Africa and 35W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
across that area. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail
across the remainder of the open waters, along with 5 to 7 ft seas
east of 35W, and 4 to 6 ft west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will gradually
dissipate into Thu night. The low pressure between Florida and
Bermuda will move NE through Fri, before exiting to the north, as
another stronger cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Fri night.
Strong winds are expected behind this front, with gales possible
Sat north of 28N.

$$
Lewitsky
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