[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 07N between 15W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center sits over NW Gulf, allowing for
tranquil conditions and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across most of the basin. The exception is an area of fresh
winds likely west of the Yucatan Peninsula within the Bay of
Campeche. A surface pressure trough persists over the far
western Gulf off the Mexican coast. Seas over the Gulf are 4 to
6 ft, except north of 27N, seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve
tonight as high pressure builds into the NW Gulf. The high will
briskly move east, allowing for low pressure and an associated
cold front to move off the Texas coast Mon night. This low will
track across the northern Gulf Tue through Tue night, bringing
strong winds, higher seas, and scattered thunderstorms. High
pressure will return and bring more tranquil conditions Wed
night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass notes fresh to strong NE
winds funneling along the coast of Colombia, between high
pressure north of the basin and 1006 mb low over Colombia. Seas
to 8 ft are active from off the NW coast of Colombia reaching
toward the coast of eastern Panama. Elsewhere across the basin,
moderate to fresh winds are noted south of 15N, while north of
15N including the NW Caribbean, are gentle to moderate breezes.
The exception is within the Yucatan Channel, where the
scatterometer pass found fresh NE winds. Seas are in the 3 to 5
ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and the Colombian low will support near gale
conditions to pulse nightly into mid-week. Generally moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the
NW Caribbean Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front stretching over the western subtropical Atlantic
waters has stalled as the parent low moves well north of the
forecast area. A stationary front now stretches from 31N61W SW
to western Cuba. Moderate to fresh SW winds are on both sides of
the boundary north of 27N and east of 70W. A scatterometer pass
notes an area of moderate winds between the coast of Florida and
the Bahamas. Elsewhere west of 65W, winds are light to gentle.
Seas heights over this region are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will slowly
move E into Tue while dissipating. Another cold front with
associated low pressure is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S.
by Tue night, with strong to near gale-force winds likely to
develop behind it by Wed night.

In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 24N29W
southwestward to 10N41W. A large area of fresh NE winds is east
of this feature from 10N to 20N, including the waters around the
Cabo Verde Islands, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are also noted south of 10N and west of 30W. Elsewhere
across the basin, winds are gentle to moderate with 5 to 7 ft
seas.

$$
Mora
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