[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia through tonight. Sea
heights will continue to range from 8 to 11 ft. As the ridge
shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will
weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, although strong winds will
continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next
week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends to Liberia adjacent waters near 06N12W
where the ITCZ continues to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near
01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between
30W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure building south through the western Gulf in the wake
of a cold front that stretches from near Sarasota, Florida, into
the eastern Bay of Campeche is leading to a broad area of strong
winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft. Gales ended overnight, and
conditions will continue to improve today as the front moves SE
and out of the area by tonight.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SE Gulf ahead of the
previously stationary front. Gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are occurring over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, the next cold front, along with a possible
associated low pressure, is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast
by Mon night. This system may bring higher winds and seas to
portions of the Gulf into the middle of next week as it crosses
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on gales
ongoing off the coast of Colombia.

Elsewhere across the basin, dry mainly moderate to fresh ENE
trades is leading to convection-free conditions. Seas are 5 to 7
ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong
to gale conditions offshore Colombia through tonight, with fresh
to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean into
early next week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean
tonight, reach from Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then
dissipate by Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Early this morning, a cold front extends from near 31N73W to near
Fort Pierce, Florida. Strong N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
occurring behind this front, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms along is, as well as along a pre-frontal trough that
stretches from N of the Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. Ahead of
the front in the SW Atlantic, generally moderate to fresh SE winds
prevail, except some locally strong winds are noted just off the N
coast of Hispaniola. Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft.

Farther E a broad area of generally N swell is decaying, but it
still leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft N of 20N and E of 50W. A small
surface trough along 50W from 20N to 25N is producing scattered
moderate convection. A 1011 mb area of low pressure centered near
30N25W has a surface trough extending from it southwestward to
20N30N. No significant weather is associated with these features.
To the S of 20N across the Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh
trades prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE
through early next week, reaching from E of Bermuda through the
Turks and Caicos Islands by Mon night. Behind the front, strong N
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft can be expected through tonight,
before the front weakens and conditions improve. The next cold
front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. coast late Tue.

$$
KONARIK
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