[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will
continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Sea
heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts
eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken,
thus
leading to fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin
through the middle of next week.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure is rapidly building behind a cold front that
extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore
waters. This is supporting ongoing gale-force northerly winds over
the Tampico offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Near gale force
winds will continue along the eastern Mexico offshore waters through
late Fri with gale conditions shifting to the Veracruz region
tonight. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche Fri evening when winds and seas will diminish below
gale-force. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually
diminish through Sun.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, extending
about 120 nm offshore Liberia to near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N13W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. No
convection is observed at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak 1017 mb low pressure formed near the Florida Big Bend and
extends a cold front southwest to the western Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are behind the boundary, with near
gale force winds west of 95W where seas are 9 to 11 ft.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along this
front. Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the low will move NE into the SE U.S. and the cold
front will move SE through the Gulf and exit the basin Sat. Behind
the front, gales have developed offshore Tampico, Mexico, and these
gales will expand S and E, including offshore Veracruz, into Fri.
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front
then shift eastward through Mon, at which time fresh to strong
southerly flow develops over the NW Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. This front will move off the Texas coast Mon, and will
quickly reach the eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Mainly moderate to
fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Caribbean Sea.

Dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair weather over most of
the basin. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is
supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh
to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in
the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient over the SW N Atlantic
waters will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas
will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to
strong trade winds will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W
through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW
Caribbean Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure ridging dominates the western and central
Atlantic waters. A surface trough extends along 79W allowing for
isolated showers and thunderstorms just east of south Florida. A
recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals gentle to moderate
winds west of 65W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front
extends from 31N36W SW to 25N47W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
behind the front, north of 27N and east of 45W.  Elsewhere
moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. Seas west of 60W are 4
to 6 ft, while between 52W and 35W seas are 9 to 12 ft, and 7 to
9 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located northeast of
Bermuda will shift northeastward allowing for the next cold front to
move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to
strong winds. Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic
Sat evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun.
High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another
cold front moves across the waters NE of northern Florida through
Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front.

$$
Mora
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