[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W
Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to
minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean,
particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at
night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine
conditions are expected tonight and again Thu night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late
tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville,
Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building
seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf.
Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including
the Tampico area Thu and Thu night. Gale force winds are also
expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region Thu night and
Fri. Building seas of 10-13 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends off the coast of Africa from 05N09N to 01N38W to
02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N
between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. Refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

High pressure prevails over the eastern Gulf with troughing
starting to develop over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds
are over the eastern Gulf, reaching moderate speeds over the far
SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over
the western Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to emerge from the
coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE
Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico late Thu night. Strong
northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front through Sat afternoon, when it will extend from Ft. Myers,
Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Gale conditions are
forecast over the west-central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. The
front is forecast to exit the southeast Gulf early Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section
above for more details.

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate winds are noted over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force at night, tonight through
Fri night within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will
build to 10-12 ft with these winds. The aerial extent of the
fresh to strong trades will increase this evening and persist
through Fri night, covering mainly the waters between 68W and
80W. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A
weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Gulf late
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area from 31N46W to 24N62W, where it
becomes stationary to Haiti. High pressure is building across
the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of the front. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted west of the front to near 52W.
Elsewhere west of the front, gentle to moderate winds are noted
north of 28N, and gentle to moderate winds are south of 28N. Seas
are in the 8-11 ft range north of 25N between 53W and 65W. Seas
of 4-7 ft are elsewhere west of the front to 75W, and 2-3 ft west
of 75W. Farther east, a surface trough enters the discussion
waters near 31N20W and extends SW to near 22N40W. Fresh to strong
winds are noted west of the trough to near 31W. Seas of 8-12 ft
are elsewhere in the vicinity of the trough north of 24N between
23W and 37W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail
elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front extends from
23N65W to the N coast of Haiti near 20N72W. The front will lift N
this evening, then dissipate overnight. High pressure will be in
control of the weather pattern across the area through Thu. The
next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on
Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. The front will likely
reach from 31N75W to central Florida Sat morning.

$$
AL
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