[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure that is
building into the W Atlantic Ocean and the low pressure of
Colombia and Panama, will support pulsing winds to minimal gale
force in the south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. The sea heights
will build to a range from 10 feet to 12 feet with these winds.
These marine conditions are expected tonight, and again on
Thursday night.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late
tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville
in Texas on Thursday morning; and from the Florida Big Bend to
Veracruz in Mexico by Thursday night. Strong northerly winds,
and building sea heights, are expected in the wake of the front
in the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force wind conditions are
forecast in the west central Gulf of Mexico, including in the
Tampico Mexico area on Thursday and Thursday night. Gale- force
winds also are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico, including in
the Veracruz region on Thursday night and Friday. Building seas
heights from 10 feet to 13 feet are expected with the fastest
wind speeds.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about each situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is to the east of the Prime Meridian in
Africa. The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to
05N10W 03N20W 02N30W, to the Equator along 38W, to 02N47W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 160 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico, and the sea
heights.

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, into the central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into interior Mexico beyond the
coast at 20N.

Fresh southerly return flow is in the western Gulf. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow, and sea heights that range from 2 feet
to 4 feet, cover the rest of the area.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters today. Fresh
southerly return flow across the western Gulf will persist today
ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast
of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to
Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend
to near Veracruz, Mexico late Thu night. Strong northerly winds
and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale
conditions are forecast over the west central and SW Gulf Thu
through Fri. Then, the front is forecast to move slowly eastward
on Fri, and a weak low pressure may develop along the frontal
boundary over the NE Gulf on Sat. The possible low is forecast
to move NE into the W Atlantic, dragging the cold front across
the SE Gulf by Sat night and early Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea
heights.

A cold front passes through 21N68W in the Atlantic Ocean. The
boundary is a dissipating cold front from 21N68W, through parts
of Haiti, to Jamaica. Strong winds are from the Windward Passage
to 23N between 72W and 77W.

A surface trough is along 85W/86W from 18N to 20N, in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from the trough westward and northwestward, to
Central America and the Yucatan Channel.

Near gale-force winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 77W. Strong winds are elsewhere from 16N
southward between 70W and 80W. Strong winds are from 14N
southward between the SE Caribbean Sea islands and 66W. Moderate
wind speeds, or slower, cover the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet within 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8
feet in the rest of the south central Caribbean Sea, including
in the waters of eastern Panama. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of the areas...in the eastern
and central sections. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet in the NW part of the basin.

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely
scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the
W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to
minimal gale force across the south central Caribbean Sea,
particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at
night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These
marine conditions are expected tonight and Thu night, and
possibly again Fri night. The aerial extent of the fresh to
strong trades will increase today and persist through Fri,
covering mainly the waters between 68W and 80W. Generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N50W 24N60W 21N68W. The boundary
is a dissipating cold front from 21N68W, through parts of Haiti,
to Jamaica. Strong winds are from the Windward Passage to 23N
between 72W and 77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the cold
front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from the
cold front northward between 60W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the north of the cold
front. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 31N40W.

A surface trough passes through 31N21W, to 24N30W 24N44W. The
sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 04N northward
between 30W and 50W; from 7 feet to 10 feet from the Canary
Islands northward from 20W eastward. A 1005 mb low pressure
center is near 34N26W. Strong to near gale-force winds are from
26N northward between Africa and the Canary Islands. Strong
winds, and faster, are from 28N northward between the Canary
Islands and 30W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 28N northward
between 30W and 37W. Fresh to strong winds are within 300 nm to
the north of the coasts of Suriname and French Guiana between
50W and 57W. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 26W and 30W, and within 180 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 41W and 46W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 840 nm of the 1005 mb low
pressure center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate covers the
rest of the area that is from 20N northward from 45W eastward.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of
the area.

A stationary front extends from 23N65W to 20N72W. The portion of
the front from 23N65W to 20N72W will begin to lift N today, then
dissipate tonight. Large seas will continue to affect the waters
N of 25N and E of 70W today while subsiding. High pressure will
be in control of the weather pattern across the area through
Thu. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern
Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. It is
likely for the front to reach from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral
Florida Sat morning.

$$
mt/ah
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