[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the Florida
coast Sun morning.  Strong south winds will begin to impact the
northwest offshore waters late tonight, with winds increasing to
gale-force Sun morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect
the waters north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions
will gradually improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are
encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance
plans.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas
coast this morning, and will continue SE across the Gulf into
tonight. Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very
rough seas reaching the range of 12-18 ft will follow the front
across much of the Gulf today and Sun. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on
Mon as high pressure builds over the region.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to near 02N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N22W to
00N44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from
00N to 07N and E of 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

Moderate to fresh S winds are W of 88W ahead of a cold front that
extends from the Sabine River to the Rio Grande. Scattered
moderate convection is along this front. A surface trough is
developing along the Mexican coast, south of this front, extending
into the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere, as high pressure centered east of the area
dominates. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft, except 5 ft in the SW
Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move east of the
basin Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and
rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish on Mon.
Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, especially for
the central and eastern Gulf. Conditions are forecast to improve
on Mon as high pressure builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level dry air continue to support fair weather
across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are across the
Caribbean, except for fresh winds along the coast of Colombia.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and
continue through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to
locally strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend
from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will
start to weaken before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N54W to the north coast of Dominican
Republic. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this
front, mainly N of 28N. Fresh to near gale force NW winds
associated with this front will continue to affect the offshore
waters N of 26N and E of 72W into this afternoon. Rough seas in
northerly swell east of the Bahamas will gradually subside to 8 ft
through Sun morning. Mariners over these waters should exercise
caution.

Weak high pressure over the NW Bahamas will retreat NE, allowing a
new cold front to emerge off the Florida coast Sun morning. Strong
S winds will start affecting waters offshore of Florida late
tonight, then increase to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale
to gale force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon
morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue.

Otherwise, the central Atlantic is under the influence of a
surface ridge that is supporting fair weather in that region. Over
the NE Atlantic, a 1011 mb low pressure has formed near 30N28W,
with a trailing cold front to 22N22W. Fresh to strong N winds
within 120 nm W of the low will prevail through Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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