[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a triple point
north of the area near 36N59W, south-southwest to 31N60W and to
20N71W, where a trough continues to across Haiti and to 18N74W. A
second cold front associated with a complex 986 mb low pressure
system producing storm-force winds, and that is located well to
the east of the Carolina centered near 36N70W extends from the
low to 31N68W to 25N72W and to along the coast of eastern Cuba at
21N76W. It continues as a trough southwest to the western
Caribbean Sea. ASCAT data passes from during the day nicely
captured a rather extensive area of west to northwest gale-force
winds 25-35 kt north of 27N behind the second front to near 77W.
Both buoy and altimeter data reveal seas of 10-15 ft within this
area of gale-force winds. The ASCAT data passes also show strong
to near gale-force south to southwest winds ahead of the first
front north of 25N between 55W-64W. An area of embedded south-
southwest 30-35 kt is noted north of 28N and between 58W-62W,
with seas of 10-14 ft. Winds between the fronts are southwest to
west 20-30 kt north of 24N, with seas of 8-12 ft. Mariners over
these waters should be aware of very hazardous marine within the
aforementioned described wind and seas areas.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Marine conditions will briefly improve
for the northwest waters on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to
emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong south
winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters Sat
night, with winds rapidly increasing to gale-force early Sun
morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters
north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually
improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to
monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans for
Sat night into Sun.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast
to move over the NW Gulf early on Sat then quickly move
southeastward exiting the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon.
Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough
seas reaching the range of 10-16 ft will follow the front across
much of the Gulf Sat through Sun. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve
on Mon as high pressure builds over the region.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
all three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea to near
04N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 04N29W to 05N40W and to 05N49W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm
south of the trough between 10W-14W and within 120 nm north of
the trough between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-30W and within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 33W-37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

A 1019 mb high over the south-central Gulf continues to dominate
much of the Gulf. A trough is over the SW Gulf from near 21N95W
to 18N94W. Isolated showers are possible east of the trough to
93W. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2-3 ft are over the
western Gulf, while gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas
of 3-4 ft dominate the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1019 mb high pressure will maintain the
light to gentle anticyclonic flow pattern over the area through
most of the night.  Fresh southerly winds are forecast to begin
late tonight across the western Gulf ahead of a strong cold
front forecast to enter the basin by Sat morning. The front will
exit the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. Strong to gale-force
northwest to north winds and very rough seas will follow the
front across much of the Gulf, Sat through Sun. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will
improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends southwestward from the western Atlantic across
eastern Cuba and to the coast of Belize. Another trough is
over Haiti and nearby Caribbean waters. These features are
triggering isolated showers from Haiti westward across Jamaica
to the Bay of Honduras. A rather weak gradient in place due to
the frontal systems over the Atlantic is allowing for gentle
to moderate winds across the area along with seas of 2-4 ft
throughout. The exception is in the south-central Caribbean,
where moderate to fresh winds are occurring. Gentle to moderate
southeast to south winds are noted in the eastern section of the
sea, while moderate northerly winds are present over the western
section of the sea. Seas throughout are in the range of 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds in the south-
central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend into next
week. Winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to
moderate to fresh Sat night and prevail through Wed night.
Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean
on Sun morning followed by fresh to locally strong northwest
winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba
to northeastern Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to
weaken before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on two
Gale Warnings.

A cold front extends from 31N60W and to 20N71W, where a trough
continues to across Haiti and to 18N74W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 300 nm east of the front north of
24N. A second cold front extends from near 31N68W to 25N72W, and
to along the coast of eastern Cuba at 21N76W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are north 30N within 300 nm west of the front.
A third cold front curves southwestward from a 1009 mb low that
is located over the far eastern Atlantic near 31N26W to 24N24W to
19N32W and to 21N40W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near
20N26W to 16N36W and to 17N49W. Isolated showers are along and
within 60 nm north of the trough between 40W-49W.

Outside the Gale Warning area N of 20N, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale southerly winds and seas at 9 to 13 ft are
evident between 50W-60W. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft N of
20N between 28W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong
southerly winds related to the low and cold front are present N
of 23N between the Sahara/S Morocco coast and 28W. Gentle to
moderate east-northeast trades and seas of 5-7 ft are from
the Equator to 20N and between 27W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle winds with seas at 4-5 ft in a north to northeast
swell continue over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front that extends from
near 31N68W to 25N72W and to along the coast of eastern Cuba at
21N76W will catch up with the front that extends from near
31N60W to 20N71W early on Sat. Gale-force west to northwest
winds and very rough seas behind the the second front north of
27N, as described above under Special Features will continue
will continue through tonight and diminish Sat as the front and
trough move northeastward. Marine conditions will briefly improve
for the northwest waters on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast
to emerge off the coast of Florida early on Sun. morning.

$$
Aguirre
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