[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141951 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

Updated due to technical issues earlier

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Atlantic Gale Warnings:
A cold front is along 31N63W 26N66W 20N71W. A surface trough
continues from 20N71W, across Haiti to 17N76W in the Caribbean
Sea. A secondary cold front associated with a low pressure E of
the Carolina coast will merge with the aforementioned cold front
and sustain gale conditions through this evening.

Another cold front is anticipated to exit the SE U.S. coast into
the Atlantic waters on Sun. Near-gale to gale winds are going to
develop behind this front, just offshore from the N
Florida/Georgia coast by Sun morning.

.Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is anticipated to enter the NW Gulf on Sun and
then move southeastward through Sun evening. Strong to near gale
force winds with very rough seas behind it will impact the Gulf by
Sun morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
all three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea to near 03N18W,
then an ITCZ continues through 04N33W to E of the French Guiana-
Brazil border at 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning.

A 1019 mb high over the S central Gulf continues to dominate much
of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 3 ft are
found across the W Gulf, while gentle to moderate northerly winds
and seas of 3 to 4 ft dominate the E Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds over the E Gulf along with
light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the W Gulf will continue
through this afternoon. Fresh southerly winds are forecast to
begin tonight across the W half of the basin ahead of a strong
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region by Sat morning. The
front will exit the E Gulf Sun afternoon. Strong to near-gale
force NW to N winds will follow the front, with gale-force winds
expected along the E Mexico offshore waters, Sat and Sat night.
Gale force winds are also forecast for the N Gulf, from Texas to
Florida, Sat through early Sun. The front will move E of the area
early Sun afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from the W Atlantic across
E Cuba to the coast of Belize. Another surface trough seen over
Haiti and nearby Caribbean waters. These features are triggering
scattered showers from Haiti westward across Jamaica to the Bay of
Honduras. Otherwise, a neutral area between the Atlantic ridge NE
of the Lesser Antilles and a high over the S Gulf of Mexico is
promoting gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft over the central
Caribbean Sea. Moderate southerly winds are noted for the E basin,
while moderate northerly winds are present over the W basin; seas
are ranging from 3 to 4 ft in both areas.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds in the NW Caribbean will
diminish this evening. Moderate with locally fresh winds in the S
central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend into next week.
Gentle to moderate trade winds currently elsewhere in the eastern
and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Sat
night and prevail through Tue night. Otherwise, a cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by
fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas. The front will
extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it
will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Gale
Warnings.

A surface trough extends southwestward from SW of Bermuda at
30N73W across the central Bahamas to E Cuba. Scattered showers
are occurring near and up to 120 nm SE of this feature, including
the SE Bahamas and E Cuba.

A cold front curves southwestward from NE of Bermuda across 31N63W
to N Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident near and up to 200 nm SE of the front.

Another cold front stretches southwestward from SW of the Azores
across 31N40W to 29N49W, then turns northeastward as a warm front
to beyond 31N55W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
seen N of 28N between 40W and 55W.

A third cold front curves southwestward from a 1012 mb low E of
the Canary Islands at 30N25W to 20N30W, then turns westward to
22N39W. Scattered moderate convection is found near the low and
front N of 26N between 19W and 23W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area N of 20N, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale southerly winds and seas at 9 to 13 ft are
evident between 50W and 60W. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft N of
20N between 28W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong
southerly winds related to the low and cold front are present N of
23N between the Sahara/S Morocco coast and 28W. Gentle to
moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are dominate from
the Equator to 20N between 27W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, gale force S to SW winds are
ongoing E of the W Atlantic cold front, north of 27N. Gale force
W to NW winds are also occurring near the surface trough, N of
28N. Near gale to gale force winds and building seas across the
waters N of 27N will continue through this evening and diminish
early Sat as the front and trough move northeastward. Marine
conditions will briefly improve for the NW waters on Sat ahead of
a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun
morning. Strong S winds will start affecting the NW offshore
waters Sat night, rapidly increasing to gale force early Sun
morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N
of 27N through Mon morning.

$$

Chan
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