[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure
extending from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu. Explosive
cyclogenesis is then expected through the day Fri as the system
continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front
extending from the low pressure center will cross the subtropical
waters of the western Atlantic late Thu into Fri. Near gale force
westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri to dominate the area
north of 27N between 60W and the coast of Florida with areas of
sustained gale force winds expected near the frontal boundary.
Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually abate through the
day Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ
between 27W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds are noted in the SW Gulf of Mexico where
seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and 2
to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will diminish
over the SW Gulf through the night. A ridge will dominate the
Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will set up over
the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold front forecast
to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale
conditions are possible off of Tampico, Mexico, by Sat evening,
and near the Veracruz area by Sat night into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted
the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average
for January. Recent scatterometer, altimeter and buoy data reveal
mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas across the
majority of the Caribbean. A fresh NE breeze remains off the
coast of Colombia with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, No significant changes expected. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected to elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N56W where a shearline
continues to the Turks and Caicos Islands. North of the
boundaries, fresh NE winds extend 120 nm, decreasing to moderate
farther north with 7-10 ft seas throughout the area. South of the
boundaries, winds are gentle with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the shear line along 23N/24N will
dissipate tonight as strong winds diminish over the Bahamas. A
large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu N of area.
The associated cold front will move across the SW N Atlantic late
Thu through Fri. Gale conditions are expected over the waters N
of 27N ahead of the front through Fri. The next cold front will
emerge off the coast of Florida Sun night. Strong to near gale
force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Sun.

Farther east, low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 29N32W. An
occluded front wraps around the low pressure center. Scatterometer
data has revealed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm of the low.
Seas in this area are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Seas greater than
8 ft are observed within 450 nm of the low. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

$$
FLYNN
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