[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 17W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. High pressure
prevails elsewhere. Fresh to strong NW-N winds prevail over the
SW Gulf of Mexico, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle
to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue
over the SW Gulf through this evening while diminishing. A ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow
will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Winds could reach gale force by Sat evening off Tampico,
Mexico, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted within 90 nm of
the coast of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trades, and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia
will diminish by this afternoon, then mainly moderate to fresh
winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere across the basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N51W to near 24N66W, then
transitions to a stationary front and extends westward 81W
within the Florida Straits. A recent satellite scatterometer
pass reveals fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front
with rough seas found in buoy observations. West of 70W,
scatterometer depicts strong to near gale force NE winds behind
the front. Scattered moderate convection remains within 120 nm
south of the stationary front. Ahead of the front, the western
Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 23N/24N
will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10
ft in the wake of the front across the waters S of 27N will
gradually diminish by tonight. A large area of low pressure is
expected to form late Thu N of area. The associated cold front
will move across the SW N Atlantic on Thu. As this system moves
northeastward and strengthens, strong to near gale force winds
are forecast to spread over a large area north of 24N W of 60W
on Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida
Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of
the front on Sun.

In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is
wrapping around a 1009 mb low pressure center located near
30N33W. This occluded front enters the discussion area near
31N25W and extends a cold front to 21N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the occlusion. A scatterometer pass
found strong northwesterly winds on the western periphery of the
low pressure center where seas are likely 10 to 13 ft. 8 ft
swell associated with this system extends as far south as 20N in
the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds dominate the
remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic with
moderate sea heights.

$$
AL
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