[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to near 01N20W. The ITCZ continues SW from this position, crossing
the equator near 25W and continues to the coast of Brazil near
04S36W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the boundary
east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The frontal boundary over the basin has dissipated, leaving
behind a surface trough in the SW Gulf approximately 90 nm from
the Mexican coast. Strong winds and rough seas are noted south of
21N between the trough and the coast of Mexico, including the
unprotected waters outside of Veracruz. The remainder of the Gulf
is dominated by moderate to fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh northeasterly winds continue off of
Veracruz through the early morning hours before diminishing in the
afternoon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build
over Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds west of 90W.
Fresh NW winds are expected in the eastern Gulf late Thu into
early Fri as low pressure forms east of Florida. The next cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast by Sat. Strong
winds are expected behind this front, with gale force winds
possible offshore Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and
semi-permanent low pressure over Colombia. This pattern is
maintaining moderate easterly flow over the majority of the
Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected
near the coast of Colombia with 5-7 ft seas propagating throughout
the Colombian basin. A surface trough is analyzed along the
southern coast of Cuba with associated thunderstorms noted south
of the Guanahacabibes Peninsula in western Cuba and near Santiago
de Cuba in southeastern Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to northeast winds will
pulse in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with fresh
winds in the passages. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across most of the basin Wed through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N55W to near 24N66W, then transitions
to a stationary front to 23N75W and extends to Havana, Cuba. A
recent scatterometer pass has revealed fresh to strong northerly
winds behind the front with rough seas found in buoy observations.
Ahead of the front, the western Atlantic is dominated by gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, strong N to NE winds and building
seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas.
Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens. A large area
of low pressure is expected to form late Thu to the east of
Florida. As this system moves northeastward and strengthens,
strong to near gale force winds are possible to spread over a
large area north of 24N Thu night through Fri night, with gale-
force winds possible north of 28N. The next cold front will emerge
off the coast of Florida late this weekend.

In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is wrapping
around a 1008 mb low pressure center located near 30N33W. This
occluded front enters the discussion area near 31N28W and extends
a cold front to 21N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the occlusion with scattered weak convection along the cold
front. A scatterometer pass found strong northerly winds on the
western periphery of the low pressure center where seas are likely
12-14 ft. 8 ft swell associated with this system extends as far
south as 20N in the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E
winds dominate the remainder of the central and eastern tropical
Atlantic with moderate sea heights.

$$
Torres
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