[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102140
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from south
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Gale- force winds prevail west
of the front off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. The gale- force
winds are expected to spread southward, to the waters off
Veracruz, Mexico by tonight. Conditions will improve across the
Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the
area. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will build within 120 nm of the
Mexican coast behind the front, reaching 18 to 20 ft in the SW
Gulf Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa from
05N09W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 06N37W to
05N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 09N between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for more on the
gale warning over the western Gulf.

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from south Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Aside from the gale force winds west of the
front, strong winds prevail, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. East
of the front, gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the gale force winds will continue offshore
Tampico through this afternoon and move south to off Veracruz
this evening through Tue morning, before diminishing Tue
afternoon. Conditions will improve across the Gulf of Mexico by
Wed as the front pushes well southeast of the area. In the wake
of the front, high pressure will build over Gulf late this week,
leading to gentle winds. The next cold front is likely to emerge
off the Texas coast over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9
ft range over the south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the
north central Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, seas of 4-6
ft prevail while seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the
central Caribbean through Tue night, with fresh winds in the
passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely
push into the NW Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then continue across most
of the basin late this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to south Florida. Fresh to
strong winds are west of the front and within 90 nm east of the
front north of 29N. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range.
Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7
ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
30N65W to the Florida Keys early Tue, and from 25N65W to the
central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds
and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting
the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front
weakens. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over
Florida and the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is
expected to form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves
northeastward. This system is likely to cause strong to near gale
force winds late this week over a large area north of 24N, with
gale-force winds possible north of 29N.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 27N36W to
26N55W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft prevail
north of the front. Elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical
waters north of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft
prevail. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate winds
and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

$$
AL
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