[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front passes through NE
Florida near 30N81W, to the north central Gulf of Mexico near
27N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 21.5N 97.5W. Gale-force NW
to N winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 12 feet,
are going to prevail from 22N to 25N between 96W and 98W, during
the first 12 hours of the forecast period. The gale-force winds
are expected to move southward, into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, during the second 12 hour forecast period. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 12 feet to 15 feet, in the
area of the gale-force winds. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of
the cold front between 89W and 96W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 21N southward between 94W and 97W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of
the line that extends from the SW part of Florida near 26N82W,
to 22N91W in the south central Gulf of Mexico including in the
Yucatan Channel.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about the warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 04N/05N between the Prime
Meridian and 12W, to 03N15W and 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
03N19W, to 04N30W 06N37W 05N45W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough and the ITCZ, and within 60 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, between 10W and 20W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil
between 32W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
current cold front, the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of
Mexico, the sea heights, and related precipitation.

A surface ridge has been building, to the north and northwest of
the cold front. The ridge extends from 31N101W in Texas, to
20N98W in Mexico.

Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere, away from the cold
front. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet
within 90 nm of the coast of Louisiana, and within 120 nm to 180
nm of the coast of Texas. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet elsewhere.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to south of
Tampico, Mexico. Strong to gale force northerly winds are
occurring behind the front with building seas. The gale force
winds will continue offshore Tampico today, and move south to
off Veracruz this evening through Tue morning, before
diminishing Tue afternoon. The conditions will improve across
the Gulf of Mexico by Wed, as the front pushes well southeast of
the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely
scattered rainshowers, throughout the entire area.

Near gale-force NE winds are within 135 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 78W. Mostly strong winds are elsewhere
from the Greater Antilles southward between 67W and 80W. Strong
winds are from 14N to 15N between 58W and 61W. Fresh winds are
from 67W eastward. Moderate winds or slower cover the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet mostly, with some smaller areas of 5 feet to 7 feet.

The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure to the
north of the area and low pressure in Colombia, will continue to
support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across
the
central Caribbean through Tue night, with fresh winds in the
passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely
push into the NW Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N33W to 28N40W 26N50W 27N55W. The
front is dissipating cold from 25N60W to 24N70W. Strong to near
gale-force winds are from the cold front northward between 46W
and 54W. Strong winds are within 130 nm to the north of the cold
front between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong winds are from Cuba
northward, from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 23N northward between 30W and 60W. The sea
heights range from 8 feet to 15 feet from 22N northward between
40W and 60W. Near gale-force winds are within 100 nm to the
north of the cold front between 42W and 50W. Strong winds are
elsewhere from the cold front northward between 40W and 50W.
Strong winds are also from 28N to 30N between 52W and 58W.

Strong winds are from 14N to 15N between 58W and 61W. Moderate
to fresh winds are from the cold front southward between 40W and
60W, and from 20N southward to the ITCZ from 40W eastward. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet, away from the cold
front, covering most of the area that is from 60W eastward, and
between 60W and 72W.

A surface trough curves along 31N23W 29N24W 19N20W 15N21W. The
trough is about 340 nm to the west of  the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh winds are to the east of the surface trough
from 24N northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N70W, beyond 31N61W, to a 1030 mb high pressure center
that is near 37N48W.

A cold front will move offshore Florida by early this afternoon,
then sink across the Bahamas through mid-week. Strong NE winds
with building seas will follow this front. Winds will
diminish Wed night as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a large
low pressure system could form over the northwest Atlantic late
this week, increasing winds and seas north of 25N.

$$
mt/ah
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