[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas
coast and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer
pass overnight indicated the presence of strong to gale force
winds behind the front south of Corpus Christi to South Padre
Island. Buoy 42020 reported seas already reaching up to 11 ft
earlier in the night. Strong winds are expected behind the front
through the early part of the week, reaching gale force within
60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then in the Veracruz area by Mon night.
Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the
front pushes well southeast of the area. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will
build within 120 nm of the Mexican coast behind the front,
reaching 18 to 20 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Liberia near 05N09W to
04N13W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N13W to 03N48W near the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is evident on satellite imagery from 01N to 06N between 11W and
22W, and scattered showers between 25W to 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
extends from Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico.
Scatterometer pass overnight indicated the presence of strong to
gale force winds behind the front south of Corpus Christi to South
Padre Island. Buoy 42020 reported 11 ft earlier in the night. A
Gale Warning is in effect in association with this front. Please
see the Special Features section for details. A moderate NE breeze
is noted in the southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by light to gentle winds
outside of thunderstorm activity and 2-4 ft seas. Scattered
moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along and
approximately 120 nm ahead of the cold front. Scattered moderate
convection is also observed in the Yucatan Channel and along the
northwest coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, Behind the cold front, strong to gale force
northerly winds will continue and move south off Veracruz today
and gradually diminish by early Tue. Strong winds will follow the
front through the early part of the week, with conditions
improving across the basin by middle of the week as the front
pushes well southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to
strong easterly winds across the majority of the central and
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data
revealed strong northeasterlies in the Windward Passage. The
strongest winds in the basin extend off the coast of Colombia
into the central Caribbean with near gale force winds and 7-10 ft
seas. Conditions are more favorable in the Northwestern Caribbean
where scatterometer data confirms a moderate easterly breeze with
3-5 ft seas likely. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
observed roughly 90 nm west of the Cayman Islands and in the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast
winds across the central Caribbean and the passages through Tue
night. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E
swell Will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon
before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel
Tue night, then likely push into the NW Caribbean into mid week,
while dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 30N35W and extends
SW to near 26N49W where it transitions to a stationary front to
24N60W. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE
winds behind the front with 8 to 12 ft seas based on a pair of
altimeter passes and buoy observations. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds are observed ahead of the front with 7-9 ft seas.

The eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1030 mb
high pressure located a few degrees west of Portugal. A low
pressure trough roughly 300 nm west of the Canary Islands is
generating an area of isolated thunderstorms and fresh
southeasterly winds. The remainder of the eastern tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a moderate breeze and 7-9 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front over SE portions of
the basin will dissipate while moving east of the area today.
Fresh winds and higher seas in the wake of the front will
gradually diminish today. Another cold front will make its way
across the Southeast Plains and move offshore Florida today, then
sink across the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos through mid-week.
Strong NE winds with building seas will follow this front. Low
pressure may form along this front later in the week.

$$
Torres
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