[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the Texas
coast this evening. Strong winds will follow the front through
the early part of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of
Tamaulipas Mon, then in the Veracruz area by Mon night. Conditions
will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front
pushes well southeast of the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will build
behind the front, reaching 12 to 14 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night
into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Liberia near 05N08W to
05N13W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N13W to 07N33W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 06N to
08N between 25W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is currently reaching the coast of Texas and will
move across the Gulf waters likely through Tue. A Gale Warning is
in effect in association with this front. Please, see the Special
Features section for details. A band of showers and thunderstorms
is related to the front. Ahead of the front, some fog is possible
in the nearshore waters off Texas. Scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms are developing ahead of the front over the northern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail across the basin.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 1-3 ft across the coastal
waters of W Florida, and near the western Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow
will prevail across most of the Gulf ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast this evening. For the remainder
of the forecast, please see the Special Features section.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure located N of the
Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low continues to support fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, including
within about 120 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, accompanied
by 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are
blowing across the Windward Passage along with seas of 5 to 7 ft
seas. Similar wind speeds are also noted south of Hispaniola, in
the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the
basin with the exception of 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean,
mainly N of 18N and west of 84W. Elsewhere, shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to produce isolated
to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and the passages through Tue night. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the
Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue, then likely push
into the NW Caribbean into late week, while dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N42 and
extends SW to near 25N61W where it begins to dissipate. Remnants
of the frontal boundary will possible showers are still noted
reaching the Central Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
noted behind the front to about 55W per scatterometer data. Seas
are 8 to 12 ft in the wake of the front based on a pair of
altimeter passes and buoy observations. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds are observed elsewhere N of the front. High
pressure is in the wake of the front, with a 1033 mb center
located N of area near 36N59W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the influence
of a 1029 mb high pressure located well E of the Azores. A surface
trough is analyzed from near the Madeira Islands to just W of
the Canary Islands. This trough is the reflection of an upper-
level low that is producing some shower activity over the above
mentioned islands. Fresh to locally strong winds are on either
side of the trough axis with seas of 8-10 ft. Similar wind
speeds are also noted N of the ITCZ to about 16N-17N. Seas in
this area are in the 8-9 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front over SE portions of the
SW N Atlantic will continue to dissipate while moving east of
the area into tonight. Fresh winds and higher seas in the wake of
the front will gradually diminish through tonight. Another cold
front will move offshore Florida Mon, then sink across the
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through mid-week. Strong NE
winds will follow this front. Low pressure may form along this
front later in the week.

$$
GR
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