[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N15W to 06N30W and continues
southwestward to the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 23W and 32W. Similar convection is noted from 05N
to 08N between the African continent and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed just south of Tampa Bay,
extending westward through Gulf along 26N to near Brownsville,
Texas. Fresh E winds are found north of the boundary and west of
90W. No significant convection is associated with this front. In
the W Gulf, a surface trough extends from 25N to 18N along
96/97W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed gentle SE
winds on the eastern side of the trough with moderate NW winds
on the western side. Another trough was analyzed along the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent satellite imagery
notes a cluster of strong, lightening producing convection
entering the SW Gulf ahead of the trough, south of 20N and east
of 93W. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh E-NE flow
prevails, except west of 92W flow turns southeasterly. Seas are
4 to 6 ft north of 25N and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
northward as a warm front while weakening through Sat. Fresh to
locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail across most of
the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next cold front forecast to
move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will
follow the front through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer satellite data depicts fresh trades
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with moderate NE flow
over the northwestern Caribbean. An area of fresh to strong
trades is noted within 150 nm offshore northern Colombia. Seas
are up to 8 ft in this area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern
Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Mainly dry
conditions continue over the basin, except for isolated showers
in the NW Caribbean north of 17N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before
decaying.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to 26N80W near Fort Lauderdale,
FL. Moderate SW winds are noted north of 28N ahead of the front,
with fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas are 8-10 ft near the
front, with the highest seas north of 31N. The remainder of the
Atlantic remains under the influence of a 1037 mb Azores high.
The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over
W Africa supports strong NE winds off the coast of Morocco and
near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are
depicted on scatterometer satellite data east of 60W. Seas are 4
to 6 ft west 65W and 6 to 9 ft west of 50W. East of 50W seas are
8 to 10 ft in northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move east
across northern portions of the area through the weekend. Fresh
to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front
as high pressure builds toward the area. Seas will also build
across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward Passage.
Another cold front will move offshore Florida by early Mon, then
sink across the Bahamas through Tue night. Strong NE winds will
likely follow this front.

$$
Mora
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