[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08.5N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 05N30W to
the coast of Brazil at the equator and 47W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 12W
and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to south of Louisiana near 28N90W
to near Corpus Christi at 26.5N97.5W. Earlier scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas are
3 to 6 ft behind the front. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from
near 30N83W to just north of the Yucatan Channel near 23N86W. An
area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is ahead of
the trough to across Southwest Florida. A weak ridge is noted
along the central Gulf south of the front and west of the trough
with light to gentle winds, and gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 ft or less south of the front,
locally higher in and near the convection.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall from near central
Florida to northeastern Mexico later today and dissipate by this
weekend. Moderate to fresh SE-S return flow, locally strong, will
then prevail across most of the Gulf tonight through Sun morning
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast
Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of thunderstorms is noted over southern Belize extending
into the Gulf of Honduras early this morning. Otherwise, a dry
and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea. The
pressure gradient due to a robust subtropical ridge near the
Azores and lower pressures over Colombia support fresh
to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea and
the Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds occurring near
the Colombian coast. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south
of 18N and east of 81W, with gentle to moderate trades across the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central
Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft elsewhere south of 18N, and 2 to 4 ft in the
NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean, the passages and Gulf of Honduras through the weekend.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere today before
increasing slightly this weekend. Moderate NE-E swell will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before
decaying.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72.5W to 28N76W. A thin strip of
showers and thunderstorms was occurring just ahead of the front
but has weakened. Fresh to strong SW-W winds are present N of 29N
and W of 70W. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 21N64W to
near the Anegada Passage. The rest of the basin is governed by a
robust subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores, allowing for
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Earlier scatterometer
data depicted a large area of fresh to locally strong trades east
of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades were noted south of 22N and west
of 50W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 22N and
west of 50W. Strong to near gale force NE winds are north of the
Canary Islands, east of 17W. Seas of 7 to 11 ft are occurring
over a large region in the central and eastern Atlantic east of
58W, except 5 to 7 ft south of 15N and east of 35W, with the
highest seas located from 25N to 31N between 20W and 45W. Seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere, except west of the Bahamas where they
are mainly 3 ft or less.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front east of Florida and
north of 27N will be overtaken by another front later today and
tonight. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are expected along and
following the fronts, north of 29N, through this afternoon. High
pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to
strong winds and building seas this weekend across the Bahamas,
Florida Straits and Windward Passage. Yet another cold front is
forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon, sinking across the
Bahamas through Tue night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will likely
follow the front.

$$
Lewitsky
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