[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061640
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are forecast
to continue within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in the
Meteo-France marine zone Agadir through 07/0000 UTC tonight.
Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft in the area. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N32W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S45W. Isolated showers are observed from 02N to
08N and between 20W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1017 mb high pressure system over northern Florida
continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in generally fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A weak surface trough stretches from
23N86W to the NW tip of the Yucatan peninsula and it is the
source for a few showers near the eastern end of the trough axis.
A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf and there are some weak
showers in the area ahead of the frontal boundary. Surface
observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds in the NE
Gulf, while gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the basin supporting
light to gentle winds this morning. A cold front is forecast to
move off the N Gulf Coast this afternoon, bringing fresh to
strong N to NE winds across the northern Gulf tonight. The front
will stall from near central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri
morning and dissipate by this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE
to S return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf Fri
night through Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast to
move off the Texas coast by late Sun. Strong winds will follow
the front early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea
and the only source for weak showers are a few shallow patches of
moisture moving across the basin in the trade winds. Isolated
showers are noted in the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting the Leeward
and Eastern Greater Antilles islands, as a weak surface trough
moves through the region. Isolated showers are also noticed in the
Gulf of Honduras.

The pressure gradient due to a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge
near the Azores and lower pressures over northern South America
result in fresh to strong trades across the south-central
Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring near the
Colombian coast. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also show
fresh trades in the north-central and SW Caribbean, while gentle
to locally fresh trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas
of 5-8 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean, while seas of
2-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through
Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses of
fresh winds through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the weekend in
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N76W, while a surface trough
stretches from 30N78W to west-central Cuba. Isolated showers are
seen north of 28N and between the trough and the cold front. Fresh
southerly winds are present W of 74W and N of 27N. The rest of the
basin is dominated by a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge
positioned near the Azores, allowing for fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a large
area of fresh to strong easterlies E of 53W. The area of strong
winds is mostly contained to N of 20N and E of 44W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds are prevalent. Seas of 7-10 ft are
occurring over a large region in the central and eastern Atlantic,
mainly E of 70W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail W of 70W.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off NE Florida late tonight
or early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected
along and following the front, north of 29N, tonight and Fri.
High pressure building in the wake of this front will support
fresh to strong winds this weekend across the Bahamas, Florida
Straits and Windward Passage. A second cold front is forecast to
move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N winds will
likely follow the front.

$$
DELGADO
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