[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Brief N winds to gale force are
expected today near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone
Agadir, from 05/1500 UTC until 06/1200 UTC. Seas of 10 to 14 ft
are expected in the area. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N36W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. A surface trough extends from 08N50W
to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 03N to 07N and between 17W and
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive 1031 mb high pressure system across the
Mid-Atlantic coast extends southwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico. The dry and stable airmass covering the basin only
allows for a shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds to dominate
the region, leading to fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas
of 2-4 ft are present across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure stretching across the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to support light to gentle winds through Thu
morning. A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast by
Thu afternoon, bringing fresh to locally strong northerly winds
across the northern Gulf west of the front. The front will stall
from near central Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri morning and
dissipate by by this weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will
then prevail across most of the Gulf on Sat in anticipation of the
next cold front set to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from the Isle
of Youth to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 17N88W. Clouds
with possible isolated showers are along and west of the trough.
The remainder of the Caribbean basin is free of any significant
weather features or precipitation areas. Overnight ASCAT satellite
wind pass revealed fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean,
with strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and within 120 nm of
the Colombia coast. Fresh NE winds are west of the aforementioned
surface trough. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the
basin. Seas are likely 8-10 ft in the south-central and SW
Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Sat. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses
of fresh winds at night from Thu night to Sun night. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before
increasing slightly this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to 27N68W. A surface trough
is south of the front from 25N69W to 21N70W. Another surface
trough extends across the Bahamas from 27N72W to 23N77W. Showers
are possible along the front and these troughs. A 1018 mb low is
noted off the coast of Jacksonville, FL with a trough extending
along it from 31N81W to 27N80W. No significant weather is
associated with this system and moderate southerly winds are
likely east of the low. Swell is impacting the area near the
central Florida coast and north of the Bahamas with Buoy 41010
reporting seas of 8-9 ft in the last few hours. North of the
stationary front, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted and seas
are reaching up to 13 ft near 31N67W.

In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from 30N45W to 20N46W.
Showers are occurring along the trough with gentle to locally
fresh winds. Overnight ASCAT showed fresh trades east of this
surface trough to the coast of Africa, in the 20-30N latitude
band. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the
Atlantic. Seas are 7-9 ft east of 50W and north of 21N. Seas of
5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through
today. Expect winds to decrease today and seas slowly subsiding
through Wed. A second cold front will enter the far NW waters
later today, followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE
Florida late Thu night or early Fri morning. High pressure
building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong
winds over the waters N of Cuba and across the Bahamas this
weekend.

$$
AReinhart
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