[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A strengthening winter storm is going to move east-northeastward,
from the USA central Plains to the Northeast USA, through Monday.
A strong cold front, that is associated with this storm, will
enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, reaching the SW
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. Near gale-force to gale-force
winds are expected to arrive in the NW Gulf on Sunday morning,
across the W central Gulf near noon, and then reach the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday afternoon. The sea heights
will range from 11 feet to 15 feet in the NW Gulf by early Sunday
evening, and then peak with a range from 17 feet to 20 feet, and
spread to the W central Gulf on Sunday night, before reaching the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico early on Monday morning.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The cold front, that will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico,
will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline, and move into the W
Atlantic Ocean on Sunday night. Expect gale-force winds, and sea
heights that will range from 10 feet to 13 feet offshore from
the N Florida-Georgia coast by early Monday morning. The wind
speeds and the sea heights should begin to subside late on
Monday afternoon, as the front moves more to the east, into the
W Atlantic Ocean, and away from the USA coastline.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details on each gale-force wind situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from
06N15W, to 05N20W 03N30W 01N40W, to the coast of Brazil near
01N50W.  Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 270 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 180 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N68W, through the NW Bahamas,
through Florida along 26N, into the central/south central Gulf
of Mexico.

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the ridge and
developing low pressure in central Texas, is supporting fresh to
strong southerly winds in most of the Gulf, except for the E
edge along the Florida coast with moderate winds. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet in the NW and N central
Gulf. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the SW and
S central Gulf. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in
the E Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida.

Fresh to strong return flow is across the Gulf W of 86W ahead of
a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas late
tonight into early Sun. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale
conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night.
The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning.
Winds and seas associated with the front will subside gradually
through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are
expected Tue, increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the Atlantic
Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the
Panama/Colombia border, is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade wind
pattern in the entire basin. Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet, are in the central
basin between 67W and 80W. Moderate trade winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the NW basin, including
in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, cover the remainder of
the basin.

A persistent band of convergent trade winds is triggering
scattered rainshowers, from NE Venezuela to 15N74W, to the
western coastal sections of Honduras. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere, mostly from 73W eastward, and
possibly in the SW corner of the area.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain
nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the central Caribbean Sea, and
parts of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as a cold front enters the
SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far
NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting fresh NE winds
and building seas in the Yucatan Channel through Tue morning
when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from
western Cuba to Belize.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N40W 25N50W, beyond 31N61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from
50W eastward. Isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side
of the rest of the front.

A surface trough, that is remaining from an early and
already-dissipated frontal boundary, is 31N25W 25N35W 16N46W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm to the
northwest of the trough.

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are near the cold front, N of
26N between 46W and 54W. Residual NW swell is keeping sea
heights that range from 7 feet to 11 feet from the Cabo Verde
Islands northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from
7 feet to 9 feet within 420 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
40W and 50W, and from 22N northward between 50W and 56W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 40W
westward. The Atlantic Ocean ridge is promoting light to
gentle winds. Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh, NE to SE
trade winds, cover the waters that are from 18N southward, from
Africa westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are within
250 nm to the east of the Florida coast, from Lake Okeechobee
northward.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W, about 490 nm to
the NE of the central Bahamas. A surface ridge is along 16N50W
28N68W 24N85W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean, from the area that is to the southwest of the
surface trough, northwestward in the direction of the 1022 mb high
pressure center, and to the west of the cold front.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain
nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and
move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front that will
enter the NW offshore waters late Sun night into Mon. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas
ahead of the front starting Sat night, increasing to near gale
force speeds Sun night and to gale force N of 30N early on Mon.
Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the
front moves away from the area. Building seas, associated with
the front, will subside to the east of the Bahamas on Wed.

$$
mt/era
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