[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strengthening winter storm is going to track east-
northeastward from the US central Plains to the Northeast US through
Mon. A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reaching the SW Gulf Sun
afternoon. Behind this front, near-gale to gale winds are expected
to arrive at the NW Gulf Sun morning, across the W central Gulf
near noon and then reaching the Bay of Campeche by late Sun
afternoon. In response, seas will reach 11 to 15 ft across the NW
Gulf by early Sun evening then peak at 17 to 20 ft, and spread to
the W central Gulf Sun night before reaching the Bay of Campeche
early Mon morning.

.Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

The cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina
coastline into the W Atlantic Sun night, bringing gale force
winds with seas at 10 to 13 ft offshore from the N Florida-
Georgia coast by early Mon morning. Both winds and seas should
begin to subside late Mon afternoon as the front moves farther
eastward into the W Atlantic and away from the US coastline.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ
extends from just W of Liberia at 05N10W through 05N23W to near
the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 06.5N between 07W and
30W, and from the Equator to 05.5N between 31W and the Brazilian
coast along 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning issued for the W Gulf.

A surface ridge stretches from the SW N Atlc westward across S
Florida, across the central Gulf to E Mexico. A tight pressure
gradient between this ridge and a trough of low pressure over
Texas/NE Mexico is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds
across most of the Gulf, except the E edge along the Florida coast
with moderate winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are found across the NW
and N central Gulf, while 4 to 7 ft are present over SW and S
central Gulf. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the E Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to strong return flow across the Gulf W
of 87W will prevail ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come
off the coast of Texas late tonight into early Sun. Strong to
near gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the
basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun
and Sun night. The front is forecast to move E of the Gulf Mon
morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually
subside through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are
expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to moderate Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high N of the SE
Bahamas and lower pressures near the Panama-Colombia border is
maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade-wind pattern across the entire
basin. A persistent band of convergent trades is triggering
scattered showers across the basin from 13N to 16N between 75W
and Honduras-Nicaragua coast. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8
to 10 ft are found over the central basin between 67W and 80W.
Moderate trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present over the NW
basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

The 1022 mb high is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through
Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the
Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Trade
winds in the E basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate
on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail
of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning,
supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel
through Tue morning when the front is forecast to weaken as a
stationary front from W Cuba to Belize.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning issued for the W Atlantic.

A cold front curves westward across the central Atlantic from
31N43W to beyond 31N60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring N of 25N within 180 nm E of the front between 40W and
50W. Further E, a weakening stationary front extends
southwestward from NW of the Canary Islands at 31N23W to 26N36W.
Scattered showers are present up to 60 nm NW of the feature N of
25N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin.

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are found near the cold front N
of 26N between 46W and 54W. Also, residual NW swell is keeping
seas at 7 to 9 ft N of 23N between the Canary Islands and 60W.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge of high pressure is promoting light
to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft N of 18N between the NW
African coast and Florida/Bahamas. S of 18N between the African
coast and the Lesser Antilles/S America, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the
Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high
pressure will weaken and move E on Sun evening ahead of a strong
cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late Sun night
into Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of
the Bahamas ahead of the front starting Sat night, increasing to
near-gale force Sun night and to gale force N of 30N early on
Mon. Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the
front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the
front will subside to the E of the Bahamas on Wed.

$$
Stripling
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