[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure is east of
Florida near 30N78W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the
Florida Straits to western Cuba and continues into the NW
Caribbean. A recent satellite scatterometer pass indicated winds
have reached gale force within 60 nm of the northern semicircle
of the low, north of 30N, where seas are 8 to 10 ft and
building. Gale force winds will continue north of 30N between
78W and 74W as the low moves east-northeastward today. Seas of
10 to 13 ft are expected with the gale force winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03NN17W to 01N30W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and
34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature in the Gulf of Mexico is a 1025 mb high
offshore east TX, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Elsewhere, a recent scatterometer pass revealed
mainly uniform moderate northerly flow across the central Gulf
where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are likely
in the eastern Gulf and within the Bay of Campeche where seas
are 5 to 7 ft. Isolated showers are noted in the SW Gulf south
of 21N and west of 92W.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build over the
southeastern U.S. during the middle and latter parts of the
week, resulting in gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the
forecast waters. Fresh E to SE winds could develop over the
eastern Gulf by this weekend as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, south
of 13N near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle to moderate trades cover the remainder of the E and
central parts of the basin. In the NW Caribbean, a weakening
cold front stretches from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
near 20N. Light to gentle N winds are ahead of the front north
of 15N and east of 85W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are
behind the front within the Yucatan basin noted in a recent
scatterometer pass. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade
winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate
to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days.
Elsewhere, a weakening cold front that extends from western Cuba
to near the Yucatan peninsula will dissipate over the NW Caribbean
by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the ongoing gale warning in the western Atlantic.

The cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure
with gale force winds is bringing strong to near gale force NW
winds behind the boundary, south of 30N. Ahead of the front
strong to near gale force S-SE winds are occurring our to 75W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm ahead of
the boundary, as well as along a warm front extending from the
low along 29N out to 73W. Elsewhere in the western Atlantic,
winds are gentle with slight seas, building to moderate north of
28N.

Farther east, a 1031 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W
extends a surface ridge to the western Atlantic near 26N65W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted in scatterometer
imagery are located within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis.
Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 40W and the
Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas. Fresh to strong trades
prevail from the ITCZ to 25N, east of 40W to the coast of Africa
where rough seas are up to 10 ft. Strong to near gale force NE
winds prevail offshore of Morocco, Western Sahara, and
Mauritania, and surround the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front and associated low
will produce strengthening winds and building seas as it moves
across the northern portion tonight through Tue night, with
gale-force winds expected N of 30N on Tue. The low is forecast
to pass north of the forecast area by midweek, but the cold
front will continue moving eastward across the region. High
pressure is expected to build across the western Atlantic late
this week. Fresh to strong easterly flow may develop by this
weekend as another cold front sags southward into the area.

$$
MORA
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