[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262221
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-
force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will diminish to
below gale force prior to sunrise Sun morning. Seas will range
from 8 to 10 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01N21W to
01N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 02N-05N between 06W-14W. Isolated
moderate convection is seen from 00N-04N between 15W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from north-
central Florida near 29N83W to weak 1023 mb low pressure off the
coast of Texas near 27N96W. The stationary front then continues S
from 27N96W to Tuxpan Mexico near 20N96.5W. Low stratus and areas
of dense fog prevail within about 60 to 90 nm of the coasts of
Texas and western Louisiana. An oil platform located about 30 nm
offshore the middle Texas coast is reporting a visibility of 0.7
miles. Beach webcams from Galveston show near zero visibility.
Fresh NE winds are west and north of the front, off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail over the
remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft near the front offshore of
Louisiana, Texas and Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere,
except for 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, low stratus and areas of dense fog will persist
over the western Gulf shelf waters through Sun morning. The front
will retrograde toward the Gulf coast tonight. A reinforcing push
will move the front eastward again on Sun, with the front
gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are possible in the west-central and
southwest Gulf behind the front early Sun into Mon. High pressure
will settle across the basin by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over much of the
Caribbean, except for strong winds near the coast of Colombia.
Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 6-8 ft off Colombia
and eastern Panama. Mid to upper-level ridging dominates the
western Caribbean. However, patches of trade wind cumulus with
possible isolated showers are noted near Jamaica and also just
offshore of NE Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Over the eastern
Caribbean, a surface trough extends from 15N62W to beyond
19N61.5W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 20N61W across
the Virgin Islands to near 17N75W. Cloudiness with a few showers
prevails over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Total Precipitable
Water imagery shows a plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture that
has moved into the SE Caribbean over the last day or two.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse through the
approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
early Sun. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean through Sun morning. Expect the aforementioned area of
enhanced atmospheric moisture to move westward across the southern
Carribean into early next week, which may increase rainshowers
over the southern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N78W to
Titusville Florida near 29N81W. High pressure of 1025 mb is noted
just ahead of the front near 29.5N77W. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the region north of 27N with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail farther south, from the
central Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 5-7 ft east of
the Bahamas. Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure is analyzed
near 31N35W. A surface ridge with light to gentle winds extends
westward from the high to 28.5N55W to the 1025 mb high near 29.5N
77W. Seas are 5-6 ft near the ridge axis. Fresh to strong trade
winds prevail from 08N-23N between 35W-55W, where seas are 8-10
ft. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the eastern
Atlantic, east of 35W, where seas are 7-11 ft. An upper-level
trough axis extends from 27N49W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered
light to moderate showers prevail east of the upper-trough axis,
roughly from 13N-24N between 40W-60W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the weak cold front extending from
31N78W to 29N81W will continue moving across the NE Florida
waters where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front
southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly
developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then
drag the front southeast through mid-week. Fresh to strong winds
are possible north of 29N during the early to middle part of the
week.

For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades east of
the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the remainder of the
weekend, maintaining seas of 7-9 ft west of 55W. Strong to
locally near gale force NE winds will develop tonight between the
Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to
12 ft. These conditions will persist into Mon.

$$
Hagen
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