[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined
with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at nights into Mon, with
winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea heights will
range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the morning hours.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 03N27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 08N, E of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the SE U.S. continues to dominate Gulf
weather. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
in the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are located in the western Gulf, mainly
within 200 nm of the coast, as the pressure gradient builds
between the aforementioned high and low pressure over Texas. Seas
in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds dominate
elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant
convection is occurring.

For the forecast, strong winds in the NW gulf will continue to
grow in areal extent through tonight and then move east across the
northern Gulf through Thu. The next cold front is expected to
enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to near gale-
force winds and building seas. The front is forecast to extend
from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening with
possibly gust to gale force winds affecting the Veracruz offshore
waters Fri night. The front will then move very slowly southeast,
gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing
out.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia.

Fresh to locally strong winds are in offshore southern Cuba with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Strong winds are also inducing seas of up to 8
ft in the Windward Passage. Strong winds dominate the central
Caribbean, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. The eastern Carribbean is
experiencing fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, over
the western Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh winds with seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted. Aside from scattered moderate convection
in the Gulf of Honduras, relatively dry air is prevent significant
activity through the basin.

For the forecast, strong winds will expand in areal coverage
across the central Caribbean Sea through Thu night. Also, fresh to
strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through
Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba will
continue through tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds
and building seas will prevail over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 31N47W to 29N56W then becomes stationary and
extends SW through the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection extends along and within 330 nm of the boundary.
Precipitation previously ahead of the front has dissipated this
afternoon. To the north and west of the front, between 45W and
65W, seas of 9 to 13 ft are occurring along with strong to near
gale force NE winds. Conditions are beginning to improve N and W
of the Bahamas, as high pressure starts to build in. Ahead of the
front, and N of 23N, high pressure centered over the Azores is
dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly moderate and
seas are 4 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, fresh trades dominate, with
locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred km E of the
Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
near and just S and W of the Canary Islands. Seas across the
swath of Atlantic waters average 7 to 10 ft.

Deep moisture in an arch of strong mid to upper level
southwesterly flow to the S of a mainly upper level low pressure
centered near 22N31W is leading to a 180 nm wide band of moderate
convection that extends from 09N44W to near the center of the
low.

For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned stationary will
gradually weaken and transition into a shearline through tonight.
Fresh to near gale NE winds to the west of the boundary will
continue to expand across the region as high pressure strengthens
through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end
of the week leading to improved conditions. A weak cold front is
forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from
30N65W to Andros Island Sat night and stall from 28N65W to the
central Bahamas Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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