[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama will continue to support strong to gale- force winds
in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia,
mainly at night, into Fri. Peak wave heights with these winds are
forecast to reach near 13 ft during the overnight and early
morning hours near 12N76W. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the border of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ
then extends from 05N19W to 02N32W to the coast of Brazil near
00N47W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 01N to
04N, E of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the SE U.S. dominates weather over the
Gulf, with fresh to strong winds over the far SE Gulf and Florida
Straits, moderate to fresh winds in the NW Gulf, and mainly
moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 5 ft,
except 6 to 8 ft in the far SE Gulf and Florida Straits. With
ridging dominant, no significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow is
forecast to develop over the NW Gulf tonight through Wed night.
These strong winds will then move east across the northern Gulf
Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the
western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri. The front will move very slowly
southeast during the start of the weekend, possibly stalling out
and dissipating by the end of the weekend.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for offshore waters near the coast of Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front extends from Cabo Cruz, Cuba to La
Ceiba, Honduras near 16N86W. Heavy rainfall amounts are possible
in NW Honduras to central Guatemala into tonight in association
with this boundary. Otherwise, overall dry air is leading to a
lack of convection across the basin. To the NW of the front, fresh
to strong NE winds are present, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds
through the south-central Caribbean are strong to near gale-force
out of the E. Fresh winds are also funneling SW through the
Windward Passage. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades are noted, with seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the
Windward Passage through Sun night. A stationary front from the
eastern tip of Cuba to Belize adjacent waters will dissipate
tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front,
including in the lee of Cuba, will continue through Wed with
building seas. Otherwise, trade winds will strengthen and seas
will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N65W, where it becomes
stationary and continues to eastern Cuba. Strong NE winds and 8
to 12 ft seas are noted west of the front. N of 23N and E of the
front, gentle to moderate mainly E winds prevail, with seas of 4
to 7 ft.  Fresh to locally strong trades and 6-10 ft seas in NE
swell are analyzed south of 23N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will
gradually weaken through Wed, and then transition into a shearline
through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds to the west of the
boundary will expand across the region as high pressure
strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region
at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker
cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and
extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat night and stall from
28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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