[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night through the middle of next
week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to 12-13 ft Sat
night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the coast of Texas early Sat afternoon. Gale force northerly
winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas Sat evening.
The gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico, Mexico Sat
night and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most
of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front should
exit the basin by Sun evening. The wave heights are forecast to
build to 12-13 ft on Sat night, possibly reaching 16 ft on Sun
off Veracruz.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W to 06N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W
to 02N50W. Convection is limited.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for details.

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, with a 1018 mb
high pressure located over south Georgia. Broken to overcast
multilayer clouds, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms
cover the western half of the Gulf. A weak surface trough is
analyzed from 28N88W to 23N90W. The latest ASCAT data passes show
moderate to fresh NE-E winds N of the Yucatan peninsula to about
23N. Mainly light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere but particularly
over the north-central Gulf. Wave heights are generally in the
1-3 ft range.

As for the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the coast
of Texas early Sat afternoon. Gale force winds and building seas
are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary. The front should
exit the basin by Sun evening. Conditions will gradually improve
across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the
basin, however fresh NE winds will continue through Tue over the
SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night
and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over
the NW Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section
for details.

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds
of 25-30 kt over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, and fresh to locally strong winds elsewhere across the
east and central parts of the basin. Gentle to moderate trades
are noted over the NW Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-8 ft are in
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with the exception of 7-10
ft offshore Colombia. Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Patches of low-level moisture, producing isolated to scattered
passing showers are seen moving westward over the eastern Caribbean
Sea on latest satellite imagery. A narrow line of showers with
isolated thunderstorms is noted over the NW Caribbean extending
from near the Isle of Youth, Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo in
the Yucatan Peninsula.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds
prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and
these winds will continue through early Sun. The area of strong
winds over the central Caribbean is expected to expand again by
the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwest Caribbean Sun evening, generating fresh to strong NE
winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front
will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where
it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds
will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W southwestward to the
central Bahamas and to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ahead of the front and also over the waters
between the central Bahamas and west-central Cuba. Similar
convective activity is noted near the southern end of the front
over Camaguey, Cuba, and also over parts of central Cuba.
Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the
front, with mainly moderate SE winds east of the front, and gentle
NE winds to the west of the boundary.

A surface trough remains over the eastern Atlantic and extends
from 26N38W to 08N41W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with
embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated showers are noted to
the east of the surface trough to near 20W. Strong to near gale-
force winds are observed per scatterometer data E of the trough
axis, covering the waters from 16N-21N between 35W-40W. Fresh to
strong winds are also noted from 12N-16N between 34W-39W. Seas of
8-9 ft are within these winds. Another area of fresh to strong NE
winds and seas in the 8-10 ft range is over the central Atlantic
on the W side of the trough, affecting mainly the waters from
20N- 26N between 48W-53W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located E
of the Azores near 36N29W.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned stationary
front will dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trades are forecast
for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola through Sat night. The
next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun
and extend from 31N66W to east-central Cuba near 21N78W early
Mon, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead of and behind the front. Looking ahead,
high pressure will strengthen north of the area, causing strong NE
to E winds to expand over the entire area late Tue through Wed
night.

$$
GR
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