[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092215
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and low pressure N of Colombia will
increase for the end of this week, causing gale force winds to
develop Fri night offshore Colombia. Additional gales may pulse
each night into early next week. Seas in and near the region of
gales will build to 8 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 07N12W to
02N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection has developed from 02N to 08N between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front is noted from the Florida Straits to the
western Cuba and into the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure
building in its wake is centered just offshore the mouth of the
Rio Grande. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail in the SE Gulf, with
the remainder of the basin having mainly light to gentle
anticyclonic flow due to the high pressure. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in
the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere. No
significant convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds affecting
the SE gulf waters in the wake of a front will diminish by Thu
morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest
Gulf by Sat followed by fresh to strong northerly winds rapidly
increasing to near gale-force by Sat afternoon and gale-force over
the eastern Mexico adjacent waters Sat night into Sun. The front
will exit the basin Sun afternoon, however fresh to strong N to NE
winds will continue to affect the SW and E basin through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section above for information on
developing gales offshore Colombia Fri night.

A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh winds are noted NW of this boundary, with seas of
4 to 6 ft. Convection previously associated with a surface trough
in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands has dissipated. Elsewhere in
the NW Caribbean, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas
less than 4 ft.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and low
pressure over Colombia has increased today, and winds have
increased to fresh to locally strong offshore Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere across the central and eastern
Carribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 3 to 6
ft, highest in the south central basin. No significant convection
is noted in this region.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to locally strong speeds
Thu night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the
south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night Fri, Sat
and Mon. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will transition
back to a cold front later today and then stall from eastern Cuba
to southern Nicaragua adjacent waters on Thu. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds west of the front will diminish on Fri morning as the
front dissipates. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sun
followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front stretches from near 32N74W through the
Floria Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 120 nm W of the boundary. Fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft are observed behind this front. Ahead of the front, the
gradient between the front and a 1023 mb high pressure centered
near 32N54W is inducing fresh N winds N of 28N between 60W and
70W. Elsewhere N of 23N and W of 50W, moderate or less winds
prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trades exist to
the S with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Farther E, a 1011 mb low pressure centered near 25N33W has a
surface trough extending through it from 29N29W to 18N37W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring N and E of the low
center, continue E to the Canary Islands. Strong N winds are
occurring N of the low between 28W and 38W, with a broad area of
mainly fresh winds to the W of the low and associated trough, N of
20N and E of 50W. Seas in this area of higher winds range from 7
to 10 ft. Elsewhere, to the S and E, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from
31N75W to western Cuba will transition to a stationary front on
Thu morning from 31N69W to eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu
night into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the front
will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night
through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE
Florida on Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead
and behind the front affecting the offshores N of 27N through Mon
afternoon. Gust to gale force winds are likely over the northern
offshores Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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