[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and enters the
Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then
continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to
04N40W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from
00N to 04N between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the western and northern Gulf
currently, following a front that mostly exited to the southeast
of the basin overnight. There are still 6 to 9 ft seas over the
far southwest Gulf, due to northerly swell. Seas 3 to 6 ft
elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft over the far northern Gulf. Moderate
to fresh winds are still active over the southern Gulf, with light
to gentle breezes over the northern Gulf. A showers are active
across the far southeast Gulf, ahead of a mid to upper level
trough moving into the western Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas are diminishing across the Gulf
as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by
Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front Sat night and
Sun over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras,
producing some isolated showers over the Yucatan Channel and NW
Caribbean Sea. A weak surface trough is found near the Cayman
Islands but no significant convection is associated with this
feature. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that
moderate to fresh trades were in the central and eastern
Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel. Seas in the region are 3-6 ft,
with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia
mainly at night. A weak front will remain nearly stationary over
the NW Caribbean trough Fri while weakening. The aerial extent of
the fresh to strong trades will begin to increase on Fri, covering
most of the east and central Caribbean late Fri through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 31N72W to
western Cuba. Scattered showers are seen between the frontal
boundary the coast of Florida. Nearby, a weak surface trough
extends from 30N70W to 26N74W. A ridge extends east of the trough
from 1034 mb high pressure centered near 34N46W to the southern
Bahamas. Recent buoy and ship reports indicate mostly gentle to
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas west of 50W. A weak 1011 mb
low pressure system is located near 27N32W and a surface trough
extends from the center to near 18N40W. Scattered showers are
noted in the eastern quadrant of the low pressure. Satellite-
derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally strong NE winds
are occurring N of 22N and between the low pressure and 50W. Seas
in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will stall
from 31N68W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri, before
lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat. The next cold
front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun.

$$
Christensen
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