[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from 06N12W to
03N23W to 04N39W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 00N-07N between 05W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low pressure is near 24N85W in the SE
Gulf. A cold front extends SW from the low to the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula near 21N87.5W. A stationary front extends ENE from the
low to Everglades City, FL near 26N81W. A 1027 mb high pressure is
centered along the coast of Mexico near 20.5N97W. Scattered
showers and strong N winds are occurring within 180 nm northwest
of the front. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are present in the Bay of
Campeche, with 8-11 ft seas north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
of 6-8 ft are elsewhere NW of the front and south of 26N. Gentle
N winds and seas of 2-3 ft prevail over the NW Gulf.

The front will become weaker and move into the Yucatan Channel
tonight. The front will be SE of the area by Wed morning. Winds
and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high
pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking
ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf
by Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front Sat night
and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades cover the eastern and central Caribbean
to the east of 74W, with light to gentle winds west of 74W. Seas
are 4-6 ft in the eastern half of the basin and in the south-
central Caribbean. 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Patches of low
level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving over the
basin producing isolated passing showers. Isolated tstorms are
noted over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica due to afternoon
heating.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia
mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel tonight, and extend from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by Wed morning. The front is forecast to remain nearly
stationary over the NW Caribbean trough Fri while weakening. The
aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will begin to increase
on Fri, covering most of the east and central Caribbean by Fri
night, and lasting through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the W Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N73W to West
Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers and moderate N winds are
occurring north of the front, with seas 4-5 ft. Fresh trades are
noted north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, where seas are 6-7 ft.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the
western Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the central
Atlantic, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 34N57W. Farther east, a
1011 mb low is near 27N31W. Scattered showers prevail north of 20N
and east of 33W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted to the NW
of the low north of 22N between 35W-50W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending from
31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida will move eastward as a cold
front on Wed, as a weak low pressure develops along the frontal
boundary north of the northern Bahamas. The front will stall
again, from 31N68W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri,
before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat. The next
cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun. In the NE
Atlantic, a low pressure trough will produce strengthening winds
and building seas Wed night through Thu night north of 20N and
east of 55W.

$$
Hagen
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