[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W
to 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to 03N29W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection within 100 nm
north of the ITCZ and within 250 nm south of it.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, from
Naples, FL near 26N82W to 24N84W with a stationary front extending
from 24N84W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. Strong northerly
winds continue north of the front in addition to the southwest
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front.
High pressure continues to build across most of the basin with no
significant convection. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the
northern Gulf. Buoys across the Gulf indicate seas in the
southern Gulf range 6-9 ft with 3-5 ft in the northern basin.

For the forecast, the front will stall across the Straits of
Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate through late
Sun. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf have diminished.
Winds and seas will diminish quickly across the Gulf Sun as high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, another
cold front will develop over the northern Gulf late Mon and move
across the basin through mid week, possibly bringing another round
of winds to gale force to the west-central and southwest Gulf Mon
night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by
Wed night as high pressure builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shearline extends across Anguilla westward to northern Puerto
Rico. The shearline along with a small upper level low south of
Puerto Rico is providing focus for thunderstorms to move across
the north-central Caribbean, from 16N-19N between 63W and 70W. A
trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 16N83W to 22N84W with
showers along it. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of
Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
rest of the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda extending SW to the
NW Bahamas will support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the
coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward
passage through Sun night. Large NE swell dominating the Atlantic
waters of the Leeward Islands will gradually diminish tonight
through Sun night. A cold across the SE Gulf of Mexico today will
stall across the Yucatan Channel tonight and weaken through Sun.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed
and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Off the Florida coast, a cold front extends from 31N73W to West
Palm Beach, Florida near 27N80W. A trough stretches across the
Bahamas from 28N74W to 22N75W. Showers are noted along both of
these boundaries. Fresh to strong winds are noted behind the cold
front with seas 8-10 ft.

Farther east across the central Atlantic, a 1013 mb low is
analyzed near 28N46W with a cold front extending southwest of the
low to 19N56W. A shearline stretches westward from the tail-end
of the boundary to northern Puerto Rico near 19N67W. A trough
extends north of the low to 31N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is mostly along the low from 23N-32N between 40W and 51W. Fresh to
moderate winds are noted along the low with moderate northerly
winds north of the front and shearline. Northerly swell from this
system continues to impact the Greater Antilles and the northern
Lesser Antilles with seas 8-10 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1016 mb low is located west of the
Canary Islands near 30N22W with a trough extending along the low
from 29N21W to 31N25W. A trough extends off the Western Sahara
coast near 25N15W to 31N18W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted across the area with seas 5-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight and begin to stall. Weak
low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida
Sun, then lift northward and drag the western portion of the front
north of the area Mon. Another cold front will follow off the
northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week.

$$
AReinhart
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