[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 03 2022 5

Corrected Caribbean Sea section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between a
trough that will extend from near 31N55W to 28N60W and to 29N67W
and strong high pressure to its N will lead to gale-force N to NE
winds 25-35 kt and seas of 12-16 ft N of trough to 31N and W to
60W by late tonight. The trough is forecast to dissipate by early
Thu afternoon, and the tight gradient is forecast to ease just
enough by 36 hours to allow for the gale-force winds to diminish
to below gale-force, however, seas of 10-14 ft in N to NE swell
are expected N of about 28N and between 54W-63W, diminishing
slightly on Fri.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to reach
from southeastern Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening,
then from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche early Fri morning, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to
the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning. Strong to gale
force northerly winds and building seas of up to 10-15 ft are
expected in the wake of the front across the western Gulf Thu
through Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve by late in
the weekend.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends 05N08W to 04N17W to 02N27W.
A small ITCZ segment is S of the equator from 03S30W to 02S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is well to the NW of this ITCZ
segment from 01N to 06N between 46W-51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming western Gulf gale-force wind event.

A high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic WSW to near
29N88W, while broad low pressure is over the rest of the Gulf.
Fresh E to SE winds are over the basin, except for moderate
SE to S winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
in the N-central Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except for 3-5 ft
in W-central Gulf area. Isolated showers are over the eastern
part of the north-central Gulf.

As for the forecast, the next cold front will push off the coast
of Texas early Thu. This front will reach from sou SE Louisiana
to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, from near Panama City,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri morning, and
from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
early Sat morning. Strong to gale-force northerly winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front across the
western Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions will gradually
improve by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

A shearline extends from the tropical Atlantic waters near
20N57W WSW to just NW of Puerto Rico, and continues to across
southern Hispaniola and to northern Jamaica and to near 20N85W.
An upper level NE to SW oriented trough is along a line from near
21N74W to 18N81W. Scattered moderate convection, in small
clusters, is over the interior of northern Hispaniola and over
eastern Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture moving westward,
with isolated showers are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean waters.

Strong to near-gale force winds NE to E are within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia, while fresh to strong winds E winds are
elsewhere in the basin E of 81W, and southeast fresh winds
are W of 81W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the
range of 3-6 ft, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras and lower seas of 2-4 ft in the north-central Caribbean.

As for the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south
of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, mainly at night through Fri night. Mainly moderate
trade winds will continue elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
gale-force winds forecast to begin tonight N of a trough.

An upper-level trough extends from near 31N67W to 25N71W and
to eastern Cuba. This features supports an area of scattered
moderate convection from 19N to 26N between 64W-72W. A dissipating
cold front extends from near 31N46W to 24N50W and to 20N57W,
where it transitions to a shearline that extends to just NW of
Puerto Rico and the northern sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Strong southwest winds are within 120 nm E of the front N of
28N. Recently developed scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm east of the dissipating front N of 29N. A frontal trough
extends from near 31N55W to 26N55W and to 21N63W. Isolated
showers are possible along and near the trough.

In the far eastern Atlantic a 1016 mb low is analyzed near
23N33W, with a trough extending from it to 31N34W and another
trough extending WSW from the low to 21N36W and to 21N41W.
Another 1016 mb low is to the northeast of this low near
28.5N24W, with a trough from it to near 31N24W and another SW to
near 22N26W. Patches of moderate rain with embedded scattered
showers are noted N of 26N and E of 22W.

Per latest altimeter data passes, seas range from 5-8 ft to the
NW of the dissipating cold front and shearline northward and 4-6
ft elsewhere, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft south of 24N
between 65W-71W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the fresh to locally strong trade
present from the Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel
to the area N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will increase to
strong speeds as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. A
frontal trough over the central Atlantic will move south of 30N
tonight, and will bring an increase in winds and seas mainly
across the eastern forecast waters on Thu. N to NE swell behind
the trough will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late
this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net