[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0105 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 21W
and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle Sw to near
25N91W. High pressure is centered over the NW Gulf. A surface
trough prevails across the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are
found SE of the front, with light to gentle winds prevailing
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 25N with seas of
2-4 ft south of 25N.

For the forecast, the front will move E across the northern
Gulf, exiting the area late tonight. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of the front will be confined to the
eastern Gulf through this evening. High pressure will move across
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to
moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong
SE to S flow will return to the Gulf late Sun night through Tue,
ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas
coast Tue. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times,
especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline from Florida
through Texas, this weekend through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh east winds in the
eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean.
Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the
Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week,
with some increase in winds possible by mid-week over the
eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N Atlantic
waters. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in
the tropical Atlantic through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N26W to 27N38W, then becomes
stationary to near 26N57W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails
across much of the Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail across the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range over much of the waters north of 20N, except N
of 28N between 25W and 45W, where northerly swell is bringing
seas of 8-10 ft across those waters. South of 20N, seas of 5-7 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front will move off the
Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun.
Fresh SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to
areas north of 30N east of northern Florida tonight. E swell
east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside
through tonight. Trade winds are expected to increase during the
middle of next week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that
time, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.

$$
AL
ZCZC WRKTWDAT  ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 171658

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 34.0N 28.4W at
17/1500 UTC or 250 nm SSW of the Azores moving ESE at 7 kt, and
this forward speed is expected to continue while turning toward
the southeast today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on
Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Due
to southwesterly wind shear, there is only an area of moderate
convection in the northeast quadrant. Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours and Joyce is expected to become a
remnant low tonight or Tuesday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along
45W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted where the tropical
wave intersects the ITCZ, mainly from 07N-09N within 180 nm west
of the axis. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-14N within 150
nm of the axis on both sides. The wave will move into the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and move across the
islands early on Wednesday. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms
are likely over the Lesser Antilles in association with the wave
passage. The wave marks the leading edge of quite an extensive
area of Saharan Air for this time during the season. RGB
Geocolor shows African dust extending from 10N-24N east of the
wave axis to the coast of Africa.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from well inland Africa
southwestward to the coastline of Senegal near 13N17W and
continues to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N28W to
just east of the tropical wave along 45W near 08N. It resumes at
08N48W to 08N59W. Aside from the shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the tropical wave along 45W, isolated
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between
24W-35W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 38W-45W. Scattered weak
isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm north and 60 nm
south of the ITCZ from 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface high of 1014 mb is located over the western Gulf.
Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is seen west of 87W, and light
to moderate south to southwest flow is east of 87W. Little
change in surface Gulf winds is expected through the middle part
of this week. The trough over the northeast Gulf extending
southward from T.D. Florence is weakening and now only producing
isolated showers and storms. Aloft, broad upper low covers the
western half of the Gulf, supporting isolated showers and storms
along the Mexican coast between Tampico and Tuxpan. The remnants
of tropical cyclone Isaac, currently near Jamaica, will move
west across Yucatan Channel on Wed and across the southwest Gulf
waters on Thu. This could produce a slight increase in winds and
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak area of low pressure, associated with he remnants of
Isaac, is located just south of Jamaica.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently limited, and any development should
be slow to occur during the next day or so.  By Wednesday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive
for re-development to occur when the system moves toward the
Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives the system a low chance of tropical cyclone development
through the next 48 hours. Gentle trades are west of the Isaac
remnants, while gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean. An upper level trough
north of Hispaniola is also enhancing convective activity over
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave currently along
45W is expected to enter the Caribbean Sea on Wed, accompanied
by fresh trades and building seas. For more details, see the
Tropical Waves section.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Depression Joyce.

A broad deep layer trough extends SW to NE across the central
Atlantic from a large upper-level low, centered near 27N65W. The
upper-level low will generally move northward over the next
couple of days. At the surface, a 1013 mb low is near 25N66W
with a trough extending southwest to near Hispaniola and
northeast to 29N59W. The system is producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 20N-30W and
west of 50W. Well east of the trough, a 1024 mb high is centered
near 28N39W. The trough and low are forecast to weaken over the
next 24 to 48 hours as the ridge builds westward.

A tropical wave is located along 45W. For more details, see the
Tropical Waves section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre/Formosa
!--not sent--!
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net