[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast around the border
of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W and continues W to
06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 04N30W to 01N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery
south of 08N and east of 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb center of low pressure has formed along the Mississippi
coast, with a trailing cold front SW across the Gulf to near
Tampico, Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is noted from the Florida
Big Bend to 26N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed north of 25N and east of the cold front.
Mariners may encounter heavy downpours reducing the visibility
below 2 miles, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with the
strongest thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring
in the NE Gulf ahead of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate
SE winds in the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds in the western
Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the north-central and NE Gulf, and
mainly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

Warm, moist area over the relatively cool shelf waters along the
northern Gulf coast is leading to marine fog across portions of
the waters. Within 60 nm of the U.S. coast from the Florida-
Alabama border west, areas of dense fog are at times restricting
visibility to 1 nm or less, leading to hazardous boating
conditions. The weather pattern conducive to additional marine
fog development may prevail through the weekend.

For the forecast, fresh S winds in the NE Gulf will diminish
today as a weak cold front that currently extends from the mouth
of the Mississippi River to near Tampico, Mexico, slides E across
the northern Gulf, exiting the area tonight. Thunderstorms along
the front may be strong today in the NE Gulf, with frequent
lightning and locally higher winds and waves. High pressure will
move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to
gentle to moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh
to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun night
through Tue, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off
the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense fog is possible at times
offshore U.S. and far northern Mexico waters this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

With high pressure centered NE of Bermuda dominating weather for
the basin, no significant convection is present, and moderate to
fresh trades prevail. Gentle winds are noted in the lee of Cuba
and strong winds are within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Seas
in the central and SW basin are 6 to 9 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas in
the east and 2 to 5 ft seas in the NW, lowest in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh east winds in the
eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean.
Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the
Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week,
with some increase in winds possible by mid-week. Easterly swell
will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature across
the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A weak cold front continues to move gradually
eastward, extending from 31N28W to 26N50W, transitioning into a
stationary front that stretches to 28N64W. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds are present north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 6 to 9
ft in these waters. A surface trough is noted along the N Florida
coast. Moderate E to SE winds are found north of 28N and betwen
64W and 77W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh E winds are
occurringbetween the SE Bahamas and northern Hispaniola. Seas
are 4-7 ft in these waters.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics support a large area of moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds, mainly south of 25N and between the SE Bahamas and
30W. NE-E swell sustain seas of 6-8 ft. Lastly, a weakening
surface trough is along 23W from 19N to 29N, In the vicinity of
the trough, and for the remainder of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate by
tonight. A weak cold front will slide off the Georgia and
northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun. A cold front
will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts Sat night or
early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front
should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of
67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside today.
Fresh to strong winds may pulse nightly during the middle of next
week N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

$$
KONARIK
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