[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 06N11W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N11W to 05N29W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 07N and east of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure over SW Louisiana
to SE Texas. Another low pressure resides near 30N44W and a
trough extends from the low to 25N95W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found north of 25N and ahead of the
boundaries to the NE Gulf. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is
under the influence of a high pressure system north of Bermuda.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north of 27N and
between 89W and 83W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are found in the rest of the eastern half
of the Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 90W. Seas are 3-6 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted in
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds prevail over the north-
central and northeast Gulf of Mexico, ahead of a weak cold front
that currently extends from Lake Charles, LA to Brownsville, TX.
The cold front will move E across the northern Gulf into Sat
night. A line of strong thunderstorms, currently over the north-
central Gulf, will continue moving slowly eastward through
tonight. Some of these thunderstorms will continue to display
frequent lightning and strong wind gusts through this evening.
High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of
the front, Sat night and Sun, leading to gentle to moderate
winds. Fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the
Gulf Sun night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front,
which should move off the Texas coast by Tue. Patchy dense fog is
possible for portions of the U.S. coastal waters through the
next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1030 mb high pressure is positioned north of Bermuda and
extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions, with no significant convection over
the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in northern South America is producing fresh to strong E
trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7
to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are
prevalent in the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the
central Caribbean, with fresh winds over the E Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere through tonight. Fresh to strong
winds are likely to pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Trade
winds will diminish some this weekend, except within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue to pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell
will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters through this evening before subsiding through
Sat. Looking ahead to next week, fresh to strong winds are likely
to pulse S of Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage, and offshore
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging, allowing
for generally tranquil weather conditions across most of the
basin. However, a weak cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N53W,
where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to
29N66W. Only notable convection associated with this feature is
scattered showers found within 50 nm north of the stationary front
between 61W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident behind
the front, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. To the west, a surface
trough extends north of the NW Bahamas from 30N76W to 26N80W, near
the coast of Florida. No deep convection is associated with this
feature. Moderate E winds are present north of the trough axis
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Broad ridging over the tropical Atlantic supports moderate to
locally fresh E trades south of 25N, between the southeast
Bahamas and 25W. Seas in this area are generally 6 to 9 ft. Over
the far eastern Atlantic, a 1014 mb low pressure system is
located near 19N21W with an attendant surface trough extending
northward to 29N23W. The convection that was previously present
to the north of the low has dissipated and no significant
convection is found near this feature. Moderate to fresh E to NE
winds are occurring north of 22N and east of 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 28N55W
to 29N65W. The front will dissipate on Sat. A cold front will
move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts Sat night or
early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front
should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of
67W and south of 25N will continue through today before gradually
subsiding tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N
of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through tonight, and
again during the middle of next week.

$$
DELGADO
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