[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N26W to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along the ITCZ from 08N southward between 41W and the
African coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending from a 1031 mb high pressure center
over the Carolinas dominates the weather across the Gulf waters,
precluding significant convection. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds are present across the eastern part of the basin, with
fresh to strong S winds over the western Gulf. Seas are
generally 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 9 ft in the northwest Gulf.

For the forecast, winds will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front
moves into the western Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds will prevail into Fri, except for fresh to
strong in the NE Gulf on Fri. The cold front should stall from
the western Florida Panhandle to Tuxpan, Mexico Sat, then
dissipate Sat night. In advance of the front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the
northern Gulf tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate
southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat
night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is
likely to return to the western and central Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The only notable convection on satellite this morning is found
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, dry air and
subsidence is preventing significant convection elsewhere across
the basin. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the
basin, with areas of strong winds noted south of Haiti and north
of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, with localized 8 ft seas in the
area of strong winds offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging north of the region will
maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern, central,
and southwestern Caribbean through today. A surface trough north
of Hispaniola will move northwestward tonight, allowing the
ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade
winds across the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to
strong tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds may
pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night.
Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the
basin for the weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell will
continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 26N67W, where it transitions
to a surface trough and continues to the Bahamas near 23N73W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 70 nm
either side of the front. A second trough analyzed at 15z from
27N76W to 22N78W is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 26N to 24N and east of the axis to 71W. Moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the cold front, with
winds and seas diminishing off the coast of N Florida.

Much of the rest of the basin's weather is being dominated by a
1029 mb surface high centered near 31N32W. This is resulting in
moderate to fresh trades south of 28N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft.
North of 28N, closer to the high's center, winds are gentle and
seas are 6 to 8 ft.

Farther east, 1015 mb low pressure is centered midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Canary Islands near 19.5N19W. Across
the northern quadrant of the low pressure center, fresh to
strong NE winds are occurring, with seas of 10 to 12 ft found
west and northwest of the low center. Some scattered convection
is noted E of the low, just offshore Western Sahara.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move east into Fri, stall Fri night in the far NE waters, then
dissipate over the weekend. The surface trough will drift NW
through early Fri before dissipating. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the Georgia coast by early Sun. Large E
swell east of 68W and south of 25N will continue through Fri
before subsiding.

$$
Nepaul
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