[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 TAFB UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: Strong high pressure in
the Gulf of Mexico is resulting in northerly gale-force winds
near the Veracruz offshore waters, with seas peaking near 16 ft
this evening. Strong to near gale force winds prevail across the
SW Gulf with fresh to strong northerly winds across the remainder
of the basin S of 25N. Seas are 8 to 13 ft south of 25N, highest
in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force by Sun night while winds elsewhere continue to diminish
gradually. Seas are expected to drop below 12 ft by Mon. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from the coast of Libera near 03N30W to the NE
coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 00N to 08N between 10W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the gale-force wind warning in the SW portion of the basin.

Strong surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico
anchored by a couple of 1038 mb high pressure centers over the
state of Texas. The pressure gradient over the waters N of 25N has
slightly weaken allowing for N winds to diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds with seas of 3-7 ft. S of 25N, fresh to near gale
force winds are dominant, except for slightly higher winds off
Veracruz where seas are in the 11 to 16 ft range. Elsewhere, seas
are 8 to 11 ft. Otherwise, tropical moisture streaming from the E
Pacific continue to support a wide line of scattered showers
across most of the southern basin and portions of the NE gulf.

For the forecast, very rough to high seas are expected in the Bay
of Campeche and Veracruz offshore waters as gale-force winds in
this region continue tonight through Sun evening. Strong winds
over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon as well as seas
dropping below 12 ft. Winds will become moderate to fresh for the
northern and eastern Gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to Belize coastal
waters with fresh to strong N winds and rough seas following it.
Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front across the
SW N Atlantic waters along with high pressure over the central
Atlantic continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean and strong to near-gale winds over
the south-central waters off Colombia and Venezuela.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E
winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Wed
night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. The
stationary front will prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong winds
with rough seas are expected behind the front through Mon, when
conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W to 25N73W then becomes
stationary from that point to north-central Cuba. Mainly moderate
to fresh winds follows the front with seas to 11 ft. Strong surface
ridging dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters
resulting in fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
subtropics.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will stall from 31N65W to
central Cuba by Sun and linger through midweek. Winds across the
waters W of 70W will continue weakening through early next week
along with subsiding seas. Large swell E of 65W will slowly
subside by mid week.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net