[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: Strong high pressure in
the Gulf of Mexico is causing northerly gale-force winds near
the Veracruz offshore waters, with seas peaking near 19 ft. Near
gale force winds dominate the SW Gulf with fresh to strong
northerly winds across the remainder of the basin. Seas are
greater than 12 ft south of 25N and west of 85W. The gale force
winds near Veracruz will continue today, drop briefly below gale
force this evening before returning tonight. Winds will finally
drop below gale force by Sun night. Winds will slowly begin to
diminish today across the remainder of the basin. Seas are
expected to drop below 12 ft by Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from the coast of Libera near 06N10W to the NE
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 07N, between 15W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the gale-force wind warning in the SW portion of the basin.

Strong surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico
anchored by a 1039 mb high pressure over central Texas. While
the worst conditions described in the Special Features section
are confined to the southern half of the basin, fresh to strong
northerly winds and rough seas are observed north of 25N. Cold
air running over the warm Gulf water is causing overcast skies
and scattered showers throughout the basin.

For the forecast, the strong cold front that swept across the
basin is now south over the W Caribbean and W Atlantic. Gale-
force winds continue over the Veracruz offshore waters, while
fresh to strong N winds prevail across most of the Gulf waters.
The gale-force winds across Veracruz will continue today while
briefly dropping below gale force this evening. Gale-force winds
will return tonight and persist through Sun evening. Strong
winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon as well as seas
dropping below 12 ft. Winds will slowly diminish today and
become moderate to locally fresh for the northern and eastern
Gulf by tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the northwest Caribbean from eastern
Cuba near 22N81W to Belize near 18N88W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. Strong N winds and rough seas follow,
with gentle winds and slight seas ahead of it. Farther south,
strong to near gale-force E-NE winds and 8-12 ft seas are
observed in the Colombian Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail across the remainder of the basin with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This
will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds will
persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Wed night. NE
and E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and
the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A cold front extends
from eastern Cuba to Belize with fresh to strong winds and rough
seas following it. The front will stall across the area tomorrow
and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong winds with rough seas
are expected behind the front through Mon, when conditions will
slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N68W
through the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 23N79W.
Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 25N and
W of 65W. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front with seas of
9-12 ft. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh SW winds
are noted with seas to 8 ft.

Surface ridging extends across the central Atlantic anchored by
a 1034 mb high near 36N46W. A cold front extends east of the
ridge from 31N22W to 23N43W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
follow the front with light to gentle winds ahead of the front N
of 25N. Across the tropical Atlantic, the gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is
supporting fresh trade winds and seas of 9-12 ft in northerly
swell.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front will stall
from 31N65W to central Cuba by Sun and linger through midweek.
Strong winds across the waters W of 70W will prevail today,
becoming moderate to fresh by tonight. Winds will slowly
diminish through Mon along with subsiding seas. Large swell
noted E of 65W will shift as the front moves eastward.

$$
Flynn
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