[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front has
moved through the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly gale-force winds are
noted near the Veracruz offshore waters with seas peaking near 21
ft. Strong northerly winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf
with most of the Gulf experiencing 8 ft seas or higher. The gale
force winds near Veracruz will continue today and drop briefly
below gale force this evening before returning tonight. Gale force
winds will finally end by Sun night. Winds will slowly begin to
diminish today across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, with gentle
to moderate winds settling over the basin by Mon. Seas will also
slowly subside and drop below 12 ft by Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 06N12W. The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 04N32W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N
between 15W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the gale-force wind warning in the SW portion of the basin.

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by an
impressive 1041 mb high pressure over central Texas. Scattered
showers are noted in the central Gulf.

For the forecast, winds will slowly diminish today and become
moderate to locally fresh for the northern and eastern Gulf by
tonight. The gale- force winds across Veracruz will continue today
while briefly dropping below gale force later this evening. Gale-
force winds will return tonight and persist through Sun night.
Strong winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon as
well as seas dropping below 12 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the northwest Caribbean from eastern
Cuba near 22N82W to the Yucatan near 19N88W. Scattered
thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. Strong N winds follow
the front with rough seas, with light to gentle winds and slight
seas ahead of it. Farther south, strong to near gale- force winds
are in the Colombia offshore waters and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas are 8-12 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
prevail across the rest of the basin with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds will
persist for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters
through Wed night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the
tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A
cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas following it. The front will reach
from central Cuba to the Yucatan later today and stall across the
area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds with rough seas will
follow the front through Mon, where conditions will slowly improve
as the front begins to weaken.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W through the northern Bahamas to
eastern Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead
of the front N of 25N and W of 67W. Fresh to strong NW winds
follow the front with seas up to 15 ft. Ahead of the front,
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted with seas to 7
ft.

Surface ridging extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a
1033 mb high near 35N46W. A cold front extends east of the ridge
from 31N24W to 23N49W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds follow the
front with light to gentle winds ahead of the front N of 25N.
Across the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong easterly winds
prevail. A large area of swell covers most of the eastern and
central Atlantic. Seas range 8-12 ft between 18W and 65W. This
swell continues to impact Puerto Rico southward across the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N67W to
central Cuba later today, stall from 31N65W to central Cuba by Sun
and linger through midweek. Strong winds across the waters W of
70W will prevail today, becoming moderate to fresh by tonight.
Winds will slowly diminish through Mon along with subsiding seas.
Large swell noted E of 65W will shift as the front moves eastward.

$$
AReinhart
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