[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: An Arctic cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast in the next few hours. The front will
bring widespread gale force NW winds and high seas across most of
the basin tonight through Fri. Winds to storm-force winds are
expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come
to an end by Fri night for most of the basin. Gale-force winds are
expected to continue near Veracruz through Fri night and possibly
Sat and Sun. An area of 12 ft seas and greater will spread across
nearly all of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas around 20 ft.
Conditions will slowly improve later this weekend and into early
next week. A blast of arctic air will also follow the front
bringing to south Florida the coldest temperatures so far this
season during the upcoming holiday weekend.

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from
the SE United States coast tonight into early Fri morning. W to
NW gales should occur west of the frontal boundary Fri morning
through Fri afternoon north of 30N west of 74W. Seas will reach
to 15 ft on Fri. By Fri night, the gales will move north of the
forecast waters. Strong winds will slowly diminish on Sat and the
seas will gradually subside by Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N20W to 01.5N43W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to
06N between 20W and 28W, and within about 240 nm N of the ITCZ W
of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
on the Storm warning. This front will bring dangerous weather
conditions across the Gulf region tonight through Fri.

A weak pressure gradient currently dominates the basin with a
weak 1014 mb low pressure located near 29N88W. A trough is
associated with this low and extends from 29N88W to 25N90W. A few
showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough. Abundant
multilayer clouds with possible showers are noted across much of
the Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have recently
developed across the eastern Gulf E of 85W from 25N to 29N. Another
1014 mb low pressure is near the coast of Texas, near 27.5N95W. A
recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of this low that
is producing gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 2-4 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, a Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf of
Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for details.
Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the
Gulf with conditions slowly improving through the weekend and
into early next week. However, gale-force winds will continue
across the Veracruz offshore waters through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Morning satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean where seas
remain in the 6 to 9 ft range. These winds are the result of the
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and the
Colombian/Panamanian low. Elsewhere across the E and central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 4 to 7
ft. Over the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4
ft are noted, except 1 to 2 ft in the lee of Cuba. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the
region producing a few areas of isolated to scattered passing
showers.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern half of the basin through the forecast period and
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Locally strong winds are
expected to continue for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia
offshore waters through Mon. Mixed N and E swell will persist over
the tropical Atlantic waters through the forecast period. A cold
front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Fri into early Sat
along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas that will continue
to affect this region of the basin through Mon night. The front
will reach from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat
morning, from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sun morning
where it will stall before weakening Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW N Atlantic. Please read
the Special Features section for details.

The low pressure area previously located off NE Florida continues
to move northward, and now is just inland along the North
Carolina-South Carolina border. A cold front extends from the low
center to near 30N77W to southeast Florida near 27N80W. Only a
few showers are near the frontal boundary. To the E, a cold front
reaches from the NE Atlantic southwestward into the discussion
area near 30N35W to 25N47W then becomes stationary to 24N70W. The
remnants of this western end of the front have begun to lift
northward and continue toward the cold front and low over the
Carolinas. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail to the N of the
stationary front and its remnants north of the Bahamas. Seas are 8
to 11 ft across this area in NE swell.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a
ridge with a 1030 mb high pressure system near the coast of
Portugal. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, especially south of 20N.
Seas are 7-10 ft in these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features
section for details on a Gale Warning associated with the next
cold front moving off NE Florida. Winds will diminish below
gale-force Fri evening. However strong winds will prevail through
Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and remaining swell will subside
Mon.

$$
Stripling
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