[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W, then continues westward to near 04N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 05W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system has developed over southern Texas this
morning. A warm front extends from the low center located near
27N97.5W across the northern Gulf to near 28N90W. A cold front
stretches from the same low center to N of Tampico, Mexico near
23N98W. Widespread patches of light rain, showers and drizzle are
affecting south Texas and NE Mexico in association with this low.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is N of 22N and within about
60 nm ahead of a surface trough that extends over the western Gulf
from 25N96W to the central Bay of Campeche where isolated showers
and thunderstorms are also noted. The trough combined with a
ridge across the eastern Gulf supports an area of fresh to strong
E to SE winds northeast of the trough to about 90W, with moderate
to fresh NE to E winds east of 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft within the
strongest winds northeast of the trough. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring southwest of the trough including
in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 4-7 ft are also seen over most of
the eastern Gulf based on altimeter data.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pres will move ENE to
the north-central Gulf by Tue morning, with a cold front extending
SSW and a warm front extending E from the low. The low will then
shift east-southeast toward south Florida by late Tue night while
the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by
mid-week. Strong to locally near gale force winds are expected to
develop near the low pres Tue and Tue evening as it traverses the
eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the
front Tue and Tue evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely with the low and front.

Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the
Texas coast Thu evening followed by near-gale or gale force winds
and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night,
with strong gales possible off Veracruz. Strong cold air advection
is forecast to follow the front. Temperatures look to be on the
chilly side for South Florida during the upcoming weekend. Stay
tuned.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean just N of Guadeloupe and
continues westward to near 16.5N72W. A band of broken low clouds
with possible showers is related to the trough. Elsewhere, shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move
across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with strong to near
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia based on a recent
scatterometer pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to
occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are present in the
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with seas of 4-6
ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are
observed in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the region will maintain fresh
to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean
Sea through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean.
Long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical
Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move
into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri accompanied by fresh to strong
winds and rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N59W then continues
SW across the central Bahamas to the coast of western Cuba near
23N82W. A few showers are ahead of the front mainly N of 27N.
Mainly moderate N to NE winds are observed in the wake of the
front per recent scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong SW
winds are ahead of the front N of 29N to about 55W with seas of
9-11 ft in NE swell. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell follow the front
covering the waters N of 29N E of 71W. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere southeast of the front under the influence of a
ridge.

Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from the Madeira
Islands to 19N50W, where it becomes a surface trough continuing
southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Visible satellite pictures
show a narrow band of clouds with possible showers associated with
the front/trough. Satellite derived wind data provide observations
of moderate to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic S of the
front and N of the ITCZ due to the pressure gradient between
these two features. Seas of 8-11 ft in northerly swell dominate
most of the Atlantic forecast waters E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
reach from 31N55W to central Cuba tonight, then weaken from
25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will
move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across
Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas
Wed and Wed night. Near-gale to gale force winds are possible from
26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low pressure
shifts eastward. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast by the end of the week, accompanied by strong to near-gale
force winds and rough seas.

$$
GR
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