[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 04N30W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ, and from 02N to 06N between 00W and 11W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Apalachee Bay, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong N
to NE winds S of 27N just W of the front to the coast of E Mexico.
Seas in this region are in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere behind the
front moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 3-7 ft. A weak
low pressure of 1014 mb is centered in the SE gulf near 25N85W
generating scattered showers and tstms across the SW Florida
coastal and offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are ahead of
the front with seas of 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, weak low pressure ahead of the cold front in
the eastern Gulf will weaken as it moves southeast tonight. By
early Sun, the cold front will reach from SW Florida to off Pozo
Rico, Mexico then southward to the Chivela Pass, Mexico. The front
will sweep southward across the eastern Gulf into the Florida
Straits by Sun night, except lifting northward over the western
Gulf ahead of low pressure moving through northeast Mexico. The
front may lift northward early Tue as a warm front while the low
pressure moves into the north-central Gulf. A trailing cold front
over the western Gulf will dissipate through mid week. Looking
ahead, a stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast into the
far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or gale force
winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds prevail across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea due to surface ridging across the Atlantic
subtropical waters. Scatterometer data show moderate to locally
fresh trade winds in the E basin and light to gentle variable
winds in the NW Caribbean, except for moderate to locally fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the
eastern half of the basin and the SW basin, except for 8-10 ft
seas across the offshore waters of NW Colombia as indicated by
recent altimeter data. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean,
except for 3-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Thu night, reaching near-gale
off Colombia tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W
Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move
into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into
the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front
will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan Channel Sun night
into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 31N57W to 29N63W continues as stationary front
to the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Scattered
showers and tstms are just N of the frontal boundary W of 71W
ahead of an approaching cold front and low pressure in the SE Gulf
of Mexico. Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle variable
winds across most of the SW N Atlantic waters, which are under the
influence of surface ridging and high pressure anchored by a 1020
mb center near 25N56W. Seas are in the 3-7 ft range except between
55W and 65W where large long-period N to NE swell prevails.
Otherwise, a cold front extends from the NE subtropical waters
near 30N28W SW to 23N39W where it starts to weaken towards 19N58W.
Scattered showers are ahead of the cold front to 22W and N of 26N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move little before
completely stalling later tonight and dissipating Sun. A stronger
cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast later
tonight, reach from Bermuda to NW Cuba by late Sun night, and from
31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, before starting to weaken from
25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Meanwhile, large
long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect the NE half of
the area for the next several days. Looking ahead, low pressure
may move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across
Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas
Wed while dissipating. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead
of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast by the end of next week.

$$
Ramos
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